General Commentary: Is the PRC Stamp Market Bottoming Out?

It's been about 2 years since I last updated my survey of market values for popular issues of the People's Republic of China. After having taken a precipitous fall between August of 2011 and June of 2012, the market's calmed somewhat.

Happy Patriotic
Farm Worker in
the People's Republic's
Socialist Utopia
Cheerfully Displays
His Little Red
Stamp Album (JK)

In a March, 2010 StampSelector blog article ("General Commentary - the Bull in the China Shop"), I commented on the dramatic price increases for P.R.C. material, and noted buy prices for several souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution issues. In a second article (General Commentary - Has the Bull in the China Shop Met Its Matador?), I discussed the rumors of a softening of the Chinese stamp market in January, commenting that at that time, buy prices for key items had remained strong. A third (General Commentary - Has the Bull in the China Shop Become Ground Beef?) commented on the dramatic fall in values. I've re-listed the items surveyed below, along with current buy prices.

(Prices are for VF NH):

1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):

2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00
September, 2011: $ 650.00
January, 2012: $660.00
June, 2012: $ 525.00 

April, 2014: $ 500.00

1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00
August, 2011: $ 1,500.00
January, 2012: $ 1,400.00
June, 2012: $ 1,100.00
April, 2014: $ 950.00

1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00
August, 2011: $ 25,000.00
January, 2012: $ 25,000.00
June, 2012: $ 22,500.00
April, 2014: $ 20,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00
August, 2011: $ 3,750.00
January, 2012: $ 4,100.00
June, 2012: $ 2,600.00
April, 2014: $ 2,300.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00
August, 2011: $ 5,000.00
January, 2012: $ 8,000.00
June, 2012: $ 6,000.00
April, 2014: $ 5,000.00

1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00
September, 2011: $ 4,275.00
January, 2012: $ 5,350.00
June, 2012: $ 3,500.00
April, 2014: $ 3,250.00

1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00
September, 2011: $ 150,000.00
January, 2012: $ 170,000.00
June, 2012: $ 125,000.00
April, 2014: $ 120,000.00

1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00
August, 2011: $ 550.00
January, 2012: $ 540.00
June, 2012: $ 500.00
April, 2014: $ 450.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):



2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $1,950.00
August, 2011: $ 2,350.00
January, 2012: $ 2,300.00
June, 2012: $ 1,800.00
April, 2014: $ 1,700.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $975.00
August, 2011: $ 1,600.00

January, 2012: $ 1,550.00
June, 2012: 1,500.00
April, 2014: 1,400.00

The declines in buy prices for these key items have averaged just over 5.7% for the last 2 years. The pace of decline has slowed significantly, and it's possible that the market values of better PRC stamps are nearing their bottom. Note that this selection of stamps is not representative of the PRC stamp market as a whole, anddoesn't take into account fluctuations which may have occurred on a shorter term basis, or during months for which buy prices were not noted.

My feeling is that the most likely scenario for the People's Republic will be an economic resurgence, and buy prices for its better stamps and souvenir sheets that will well exceed the highs of 2011. However, though China is still in its "wonder years", it has a large number of rather ugly warts, and it is possible that some of them could develop into tumors.

General Commentary: Global Warming and the Stamp Market

   There is a popular anecdote known as the boiling frog story, which has the premise that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.This story allegorically applies to the current environmental crisis popularly known as "Global Warming" or "Climate Change." There is no dispute among legitimate climate scientists that, minimally, the crisis threatens to severely degrade the quality of life for humans on the planet.Yet our leaders pay it lip service and take but token action, our corporations either trivialize it or dismiss it, and there is a general  air of complacency or fatalism on the part of the general public

   Over the past 540 million years, there have been five major mass extinctions in which over 50% of animal species died. In the most comprehensive of them, the Permian-Triassic Extinction Event
of 252 million years ago, up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct. While the causes of this extinction is a matter of dispute, one of the suggested mechanisms was the sudden release of methane clathrate from the sea floor, which may occur when the temperature of the oceans rises significantly. This possible result of the global warming trend is the worst case scenario: vast quantities of methane bubbling out of the sea resulting in a rapid average temperature increase of 5 degrees or more and a decrease in the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere.

    There is very little mention of global warming on any of the popular investment TV shows. It does not factor into the stock analysis or projections of economic growth on "Fast Money" or Jim Cramer's "Mad Money." Larry Kudlow, whose show combines the topics of politics and finance, disparages those who are concerned about it as hysterical alarmists, and denies that their concern is backed by scientific research.

   To some extent, this is understandable. Aside from the fact that well-funded lobbyists and astroturf groups representing the fossil fuel and chemical industries are actively promoting denial and inaction, no one really knows how bad the problem will become, or whether humans have the capacity to cooperate effectively to either solve or cope with it. It is as if we were all living on a flat island watching a larger than usual wave forming in the distance, and no one knows how much damage it will do. From an investment perspective, governments mandating massive expenditures on combating the problem by transforming the system of energy consumption from what we've got now to something more sustainable would create opportunities and millions of jobs, but it's questionable whether there exists the vision and will to accomplish this in time.

   In any case, from an investment perspective, including one which focuses on stamps, it's pointless to consider the worst case scenarios (extinction of the human race, or a longer and more horrible repetition of the Dark Ages), because should either of these occur, the best investments will prove to be suicide kits (in the case of extinction) or weapons, biohazard suits, canned food, bomb shelters,  narcotics, and cannibal cookbooks, should a remnant of humanity find itself living in a hot, poisoned wasteland. It's more reasonable to assume that either we'll somehow rise to the challenge in time, or that we'll do so after some damage has been done, and life goes on.


   Nevertheless, since we don't know the magnitude of the consequences of our little experiment, it's worth considering some scenarios which are pretty negative. Here is a world map which shows how the world would look if the planet's icecaps were completely melted. In the Americas, countries which are significantly affected include the U.S., which is left with  diminished East and Gulf Coasts, Brazil, and Argentina. Floridians may look forward to taking scuba lessons.

 In Europe, all of the non-landlocked countries lose significant amounts of territory to the risen seas, with the exceptions of Norway and Iceland. Denmark is gone, and the Low Countries are now very low indeed. We will bid au revoir to Paris, London, and Berlin.

    As for South and East Asia - currently the centers of economic growth in the emerging market countries, well, let's just say that hopes for continued prosperity will be put on hold for a while. India, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Malaysia, and Indonesia will all lose significant amounts of territory.

  In the Pacific, rising sea levels would endow Australia with two sizable lakes, including one on the eastern edge of its Outback. This new bounty may help to compensate for the more frequent incidence of heat waves, droughts, fires, severe storms, and flooding.


   Again, this is a pretty dire projection, and it may be more reasonable to assume that there will be some (but not total) loss of the polar icecaps and coastal areas.Yet climate change has other, generally negative, effects as well. Countries in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America stand the greatest chance of diminished agricultural productivity. These include many of the currently "emerging market" countries which were formerly impoverished Third and Fourth World dictatorships, and to that condition, for which few harbor nostalgia, they will return, but with more famine than before.

   There is an ancient Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times." We may expect that if humans do not take effective action to avert a climate catastrophe, the situation will become far too diverting for many people to be interested in collecting stamps. We may expect a far more dangerous, unstable world in which the middle class is decimated, peaceful democracies degenerate into murderous police states, and despair fuels recruitment by apocalyptic terrorist groups.

  The Stamp Auction Bidders and Consignors Union (SABACU) is a forum for discussing stamp auctions, and represents the interests of stamp auction bidders and consignors in their dealings with stamp auctioneers. All stamp collectors and dealers are welcome to join.  

General Commentary: Cultural Factors Influencing the Popularity of Stamp Collecting

   While economic factors play a crucial role in determining the size of a country's stamp collecting population, a less quantifiable but nevertheless significant set of influences involve its cultural values.

   For over a century after the first postage stamp was issued, the stamp market was centered in Europe (especially Germany), followed by the United States. Japan became the first Asian nation to develop a significant stamp collecting market, largely due to its miraculous economic progress following its defeat in World War II. Over the last 30 years, China has superseded Europe, the U.S., and Japan as the principal philatelic market, and other East Asian nations (the so-called Asian Tigers) have also developed significant markets.

   Clearly, much of this transformation is due to the growth of the middle class in these rapidly developing nations, where once no middle class existed and most of the wealth and power were in the hands of a tiny oligarchical elite. What is less obvious is to what extent culture has played a role in determining the degree and nature of that transformation. Does the growth of a country's middle class always signal a proportionate growth in the number of its stamp collectors, or do other less measurable factors come into play?

   In other words, do countries with similar economic growth but different cultural values develop proportionately similar stamp collecting populations based upon the growth of their middle classes? If not, then how do these values promote or diminish interest in the hobby?

  These are important questions to consider if one is attempting to predict demand for a country's stamps. Before addressing them, I wish to state that I am in no way claiming that any one cultural, religious, or ethnic group is better than any other. Neither am I assuming that cultural values are static, or impervious to economic or other influences.

   The ostensibly cultural determinant is particularly striking when comparing the stamp market of two affluent nations: the U.S. and Germany. As noted in an earlier article, it is very difficult to estimate the number of "serious stamp collectors" in a country. For the most part, only the population of serious collectors  (however broadly characterized) is of interest from a philatelic investment perspective, because non-serious or beginning collectors tend to be less committed to the hobby, and tend to focus on common, inexpensive material. Based completely on experience, a few shreds of evidence, and hearsay, I would guess that there are no more than 250,000 serious philatelists in the U.S. (perhaps .07% of the population) vs. .5 million to 1 million in Germany (.6% to 1.25%).

    Why is this so? However it is defined, the middle class is not 8 to 14 times larger as a proportion of the population in Germany than it is in the U.S.. Why are Germans, on the whole, 8 to 14 times more interested in stamps than Americans?

   As yet, there has been no research done on the sociology of stamp collecting. We have no clue as to whether, in the future, Koreans will be more interested in stamps than Vietnamese, whether Buddhists will be more interested than Muslims, etc..

   In the last three decades, the stamp collecting cohort within the People's Republic of China has become the world's largest. 20 million of the world's 50-60 million stamp collectors are Chinese, and according to at least one article, all of them are "serious" collectors. I think it more likely that between 4 and 6 million Chinese are serious stamp collectors (about .3% - .5% of the population), which raises the question: why are Chinese 4 to 7 times more interested in stamps than Americans?

   While I've found nothing in the way of data suggesting an answer to this question, my instincts tell me that the answer relates to two variables.

   The first is how intellectuals are perceived by society. Since the Pioneer Era, there has existed in the U.S. a strong anti-intellectual tendency, coupled with a belief that intellectuals are odd, weak, or socially awkward, as well as arrogant and elitist. Collecting stamps is considered an esoteric pursuit of introverted intellectuals - a hobby for "geeks", "nerds", "eggheads", etc.. Perhaps countries in which intellectuals are accorded higher status (like Germany and China, for instance) tend to have a higher population of serious stamp collectors.

   The second relates to patriotism. Since most stamp collectors focus on the stamps of their countries, it stands to reason that where there is interest in the history and culture of a country, there will be a greater interest in its stamps. Countries in which the citizens tend to identify with tribal or ethnic groups,  in which most of the population does not identify with the country as a nation, or in which most of the population has become disillusioned, will be less likely to collect. While patriotism is not dead in the U.S., it has certainly declined significantly over the last 50 years.

   Obviously these are just hunches, and the actual factors which influence the popularity of stamp collecting in a particular country are far more subtle and complex.

   Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are encouraged to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.      
  

General Commentary: The Global Growth of the Middle Class

   One of the most radical transformations of the 21st century could be the explosive growth of the middle class, especially in countries where virtually no middle class existed until recently.  I am convinced that aside from the many beneficial social and political effects of this change, it will also mean that more people will have the time and money to engage in recreational activities, including hobbies such as stamp collecting.

   According to Ernst and Young, the population of the world's middle class will increase by over 260% from 2009 to 2030, and by that year, two thirds of the middle class will live in the Asia-Pacific region. These trends, along with a concurrent trend toward global aging, have important implications for the philatelic investor.

    The break down of the projections provided by Ernst and Young is interesting: only North America's middle class declines in both absolute terms and as a proportion of the world's population: from 338 million/ 18% (2009) to 322 million/ 7% (2030). Europe's rises slightly in absolute terms but declines proportionately: from 664 million/ 36% to 680 million/ 14%.  It is the developing world which experiences the most dramatic transformation, led by Asia/Pacific: 525 million/28% to 3,228 million/ 66%. Central and South America and the Middle East/North Africa see a dramatic rise in absolute terms along with a corresponding proportionate decline: 181 million/10% to 313 million/6% and 105 million/6% and 234 million/5%, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa's middle class increases in population by 334%, from 32 million to 107 million, while remaining 2% of the the global total.

   Obviously, these are only projections, and any number of circumstances may render them inaccurate. Furthermore, many other factors may also influence the future growth or decline in demand for a particular country's (or region's) stamps, so the middle class population stats should not be viewed alone when making such predictions.

   Other than the general positive effect of this "rising tide lifting all boats" on the hobby, the demand for certain stamps will be heightened when favorable trends coincide. The greatest increases in demand will be for better issues with popular topics from countries where both the growth of the middle class and aging of the population are occurring most rapidly. 

    The Stamp Auction Bidders and Consignors Union (SABACU) is a forum for discussing stamp auctions, and represents the interests of stamp auction bidders and consignors in their dealings with stamp auctioneers. All stamp collectors and dealers are welcome to join. 
  

General Commentary - the 2013 Curtiss Jenny Error Souvenir Sheet Lottery

  About 3 1/2 years ago, I suggested in a StampSelector article that the financially beleaguered Postal Service might raise funds by instituting a postal lottery, in which lucky collectors could win stamps issued in very limited quantities. Admittedly, the suggestion was not a serious one, because although the the USPS has made many idiotic mistakes in the last five decades, it's never promoted gambling or sunk to the level of a carnival tout. As it happens, it's taken my advice, at least generally, with its recent  issuance of the $12 Inverted Jenny Souvenir Sheets, each of which contains six $2 stamps.

The history of the original error (Scott #C3a) is well known to many U.S. collectors. In 1918, in a rush to celebrate the first airmail flight, the Post Office Department issued the 24 cent Curtiss Jenny stamp. Because the design required two colors, sheets were placed on the printing press twice - first to apply red ink and a second time to apply blue ink. This process was prone to human error, as it allowed for the possibility that sheets might be inserted upside down, resulting in inverted center error stamps. A Washington, D.C. post office clerk who had never seen an airplane sold a sheet of 100 stamps mistakenly showing the biplane upside down to collector William T. Robey. Robey sold the legendary sheet of “Inverted Jennies” for $15,000 to dealer Eugene Klein, who then sold it to famed collector Colonel E.H.R. Green for $20,000. Colonel Green broke  up the sheet and sold most of it over the years, keeping select examples, including one which he encased in a locket which he gave to his wife, Mabel. When offered, these stamps now sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars (up to $1 million, depending upon condition).

Normal s/s

The USPS recently issued 2.2 million of the $12 Inverted Jenny souvenir sheets, but this figure also includes 100 sheets with the biplane rightside-up -  intentional "design errors" which correct the original design error of 1918. Actually, it is probably more accurate to call these items varieties. The sheets are being sold in shrink-wrapped packages, thereby rendering it impossible for buyers to see the design of each sheet.  In effect, the USPS has instituted a lottery, motivating collectors to buy quantities of the $12 souvenir sheets in hopes of finding those with valuable "biplane rightside-up" varieties.

The intentional issuance of an inverted center errors is not unprecedented. There are a number of developing countries (most notably Liberia) for which such errors are relatively common. In many cases such stamps were created by corrupt postal officials hoping to profit from sales to collectors.The editors of the Scott Catalog  have stated that the new variety will not receive a major or minor Scott catalog number, though it will be described in a footnote accompanying the souvenir sheet's listing. As an intentionally created scarce variety, it violates Clause 6 of Scott's listing policy.

Variety ("Error") s/s

Each purchase of one of the $12 sheets basically gives the buyer about a 1 in 22,000 chance of purchasing a variety sheet. For those collectors, speculators, and dealers who might wish to enter this USPS lottery by buying large quantities of the sheets in hopes of acquiring the varieties, the key question to consider is whether the (currently unknown) market value of a variety sheet will more offset the probable loss incurred when unloading all of the normal ones.

A prudent stamp dealer or speculator would consider the following before playing this game: 22,000 sheets will cost him $264,000.- (plus labor and expenses) and will probably yield him at least one variety sheet. Unless he does mass mailings, he will have to sell most of the rest of the sheets as discount postage, for around 70% - 75% of face value ($184,800 to $198,000.-, if all are sold at a discount). In other words, in order for this individual to break even on his gamble, he will have to be able to sell his Rightside-up variety sheet for at least $66,000.- (or $79,200-. if he unloaded the discount postage for 70%).  Not bloody likely, in my opinion.

Attempting to predict the probable long-term market value for such an item is an endeavor fraught with difficulty (and peril if one gambles on one's guess). The quantities issued are the same for both the original 1918 Inverted Centers and the 2013 "Biplane Rightside-up" variety souvenir sheets  - 100 of each exist. Much of the demand for the original Inverted Jenny stamps is based on their fame rather than scarcity - there are many stamps for which fewer than 100 examples exist (including inverted center errors) which sell for far less than C3a. In fact, there are many such stamps which sell for 1% or less of what a nice C3a will realize at auction. As for the variety souvenir sheets: based upon the values of comparably scarce legitimate U.S. errors, one might reasonably estimate that they will sell for a few thousand dollars each once the hype dies down. However, there are times when reason has little to do with the stamp market.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are encouraged to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.   

General Commentary: Comparing the Long-term Performance of First Issues

   I recently purchased a 1940 Scott Catalogue in order to make general comparisons between the the market values of various stamps then and now, and to gauge their  relative long-term performance.

       Some collectors feel  nostalgia for the so-called Classic
Period of Philately, the first century of postage stamps, during which all of the world's issues could be listed and described in a single convenient volume, rather than the unwieldy six volume set that collectors must use today. Issuance policies of that period were far more conservative than now, designs were usually dignified and attractive, and the subjects tended to be significant and relevant to the issuing country's history or culture. The idea of issuing a "Love" stamp or a stamp honoring a cartoon character would have been considered laughable during this period, and even the poorer nations would not have considered pandering to collectors in the wealthier ones by issuing stamps picturing contemporary pop music stars. To some extent, the decision by Scott Publishing to issue a Classic Specialized Catalogue reflects this lingering sense of nostalgia.

    The year 1940 represents a good starting point for taking an overview of the growth of the modern stamp market. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the most famous stamp-collecting  U.S. President, was in office, and the U.S. was mobilizing for war and just beginning its economic recovery from the Great Depression.

In the interest of conciseness and consistency, I've decided to consider only the first issues of stamps from major nations in both the affluent and developing world, and to include only the catalogue values of used stamps, because these countries' first stamps in unused condition are often rare and unaffordable to most collectors. I've calculated the stamps' approximate average long-term compounded rates of return over the last 73 years (since 1940) using the Rule of 72, which works well when measuring exponential growth over long periods of time. In cases where a currently existing nation did not exist in 1940 but stamps were issued by a colonial power, I have listed the first stamps issued for the colony. Though somewhat "Americentric", I've utilized the old Scott country order (U.S., Great Britain and Commonwealth, General Foreign A-Z) to list the stamps.

- United States 1847 5c Franklin/10c Washington (Scott #1-2); Scott 1940 = $ 41.50, Scott 2013= $ 1,575.- ; Approximate Long-term Annual Compounded  Rate of Return (ALTACROR) = 5%;

- Great Britain 1840 1p Black (Scott #1); Scott '40= $2.00; Scott '13= $300.- ; ALTACROR = 7%;

- Australia 1913 Kangaroo (Scott #1-15); Scott '40= $ 37.18; Scott '13= $ 645.75 ; ALTACROR = 4%;

- Canada 1851 3p Red (Scott #1); Scott '40= $ 15.00; Scott '13= $ 1,000.-  ; ALTACROR =  6%;

- Cape of Good Hope  1853 Hope Seated (Scott #1-2); Scott '40 = $ 18.00; Scott '13= $ 445.- ; ALTACROR =  4.5%;

- India 1854 Victoria (Scott #2-6); Scott '40 =$ 26.75; Scott '13 =$ 610.- ; ALTACROR= 4.5%;

- Lagos 1874-75 Victoria (Scott #1-6); Scott '40 =$ 32.00; Scott '13= $  260.-  ; ALTACROR = 3%;

- Brazil 1843 Bull's Eyes (Scott #1-3); Scott '40= $ 77.50; Scott '13 = $  2,250.- ; ALTACROR = 5%;

- China 1878 Dragon (Scott #1-3); Scott '40 = $ 6.00; Scott '13 = $ 1,425.- ; ALTACROR =  8%;

- Colombia 1859 Arms (Scott # 1-7); Scott '40 = $ 25.50; Scott '13 =$ 595.- ; ALTACROR = 4.5%;

- Egypt 1866 Surcharge (Scott #1-7); Scott '40 = $  61.25; Scott '13 = $725.50 ; ALTACROR = 3.5%;

- Ethiopia 1895 Menelik II (Scott #1-7); Scott '40 = $ 1.80; Scott '13 = $ 14.- ; ALTACROR =  3%;

- France 1849-59 Ceres (Scott #1-3, 6-7, 9); Scott '40 = $ 35.35; Scott '13 = $ 2,610.- ; ALTACROR =   6%;

- Germany 1872 Small Shield (Scott #1-11); Scott '40 = $ 21.65; Scott '13 = $  951.- ; ALTACROR = 5%;

- Indochina 1889 Surcharge (Scott #1-2); Scott '40 = $ 2.85; Scott '13 = $ 107.- ; ALTACROR =  5%;

- Iran 1875 Arms ( first postally cancelled issue - Scott #11-14); Scott '40 = $ 30.00; Scott '13 = $ 280.- ; ALTACROR =  3%; 

- Italy 1862 Victor Emmanuel II (Scott #17-21); Scott '40 = $ 23.50; Scott '13 = $ 3,000.- ; ALTACROR = 7 %;

- Japan 1871 Dragons (Scott #1-4); Scott '40 = $  28.50; Scott '13 = $ 1,625.- ; ALTACROR =5.5%; 

- Korea 1895 Yin Yang (first stamps to be used- Scott #6-9); Scott '40= $ 1.65; Scott '13 = $ 80.- ; ALTACROR =  5%;

-  Mexico 1856 Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla (Scott #1-5) ; Scott '40 = $ 26.25; Scott '13 = $ 358.50 ; ALTACROR = 3.5 %;

- Netherlands 1852 William III (Scott #1-3) ; Scott '40 = $ 8.35; Scott '13 = $ 181.50 ; ALTACROR= 4%;

- Netherlands Indies 1854 William III (Scott #1); Scott '40 = $ 6.50; Scott '13 = $ 100.-; ALTACROR = 4%;

- Philippines (Spanish) 1854 Isabella II (Scott #1-5); Scott '40 = $ 205.00; Scott '13 = $ 1,100.- ; ALTACROR=   2.25%; 

- Poland 1860 Arms (Scott #1); Scott '40 = $ 8.00; Scott '13 = $ 250.- ; ALTACROR = 4.75 %;

- Russia 1857 Arms (Scott #1); Scott '40 = $ 25.00; Scott '13 = $ 850.- ; ALTACROR =  5 %;

- Spain 1850 Isabella II (Scott #1-5); Scott '40 = $ 187.50; Scott '13 = $ 3,367.- ; ALTACROR =  4%;

- Sweden 1855 Arms (Scott #1-5); Scott '40 = $ 151.00; Scott '13 = $ 9,400.- ; ALTACROR = 6%;

- Thailand 1883 Chulalongkorn I (Scott #1-6); Scott '40 = $ 2.60; Scott '13 = $135.50; ALTACROR=  5.5%;

   These rates average out to about 4.75%, which significantly beats the very long-term U.S. inflation rate since 1872 of 2.16%,  but is less impressive when compared to the 3.9% inflation rate since 1945.

   The performance of Great Britain's Penny Black is particularly interesting, because it is the world's first postage stamp and probably also the world's most famous stamp, and is therefore in demand by many stamp collectors worldwide.  About 69 million were issued in 1840, very few were collected unused, and a substantial number of used examples (perhaps 1-3 million?) remain, though most are in poor to average condition. It is possible to make an educated guess concerning its price performance since 1840 by assuming a "hypothetical 1840 catalogue value" of 1/2 cent to 1c for the stamp in used condition (as there were no stamp catalogues in 1840), which would imply an increase by a factor of 30,000 to 60,000, and a 173 year compound annual  rate of appreciation of 6% or 7%, depending upon which catalogue value is used.  If the relatively consistent general worldwide demand for the Penny Black could  be segregated from the more dynamic and particular demand of collectors of Great Britain, British Commonwealth, and philatelic investors, then it might be possible to gauge the long-term global growth of the stamp collecting population, but this, alas, is impossible.

General Commentary - Does 3D Printing Mean Armageddon for Collectibles?

  In a recent article in The American Philatelist ("The Future of Forgery" - October, 2011 edition), Stephen Rose describes the probable future advances in 3D scanning and printing technology, and the possible implications for collectibles markets. With this new technology, a computer-aided design may be executed to produce a three dimensional object by "printing" a thin layer at a time. 3D printers have already been used to produce dental crowns, jewelry, and musical instruments.

3D Systems Z Printer 850

   The article describes a threat to collectibles markets in general (and to the stamp market in particular) brought about by a convergence in advances in computing power, scanning capacity, and 3D printing. If these technologies converge so as to allow a forger to produce a virtually identical copy of a collectible which is accurate at the molecular level, then it is possible that all collectibles may be rendered almost worthless. Should  the technology advance to the point where any collectible - be it a rare coin, stamp, Ming vase, painting, classic car, etc.- may be reproduced with near perfect accuracy such that authentication is impossible, then all collectibles markets will be decimated in short order. Museums housing what were once billion dollar collections will be converted to shopping malls, and the "Collectibles Bubble" will be compared to the Tulip Craze of the 17th century Netherlands.

   Of course, as with all radical projections concerning the future, the prediction that 3D printing will mean the end of the collectibles business currently seems about as credible as science fiction. While it is likely that the technologies which might be applied by a forger will develop over time and that costs of reproducing objects will decrease, the key questions are whether it will ever be possible to produce virtually identical copies of originals, and whether the science of authentication also advances to counter the threat. It will be interesting to see how the relevant technologies progress over the next decade or two.

Those interested in learning more about investing in stamps are encouraged to read the Philatelic Investment Guide ($5), available on Kindle, and accessible from any computer.

Has the Bull in the China Shop Become Ground Beef?

Since October of 2010, the People's Bank of China has raised interest rates five times in an effort to combat inflation. This tightening of monetary policy has led to a deceleration of economic growth in the P.R.C., and has been a factor in the global economic recession.

Enlightened workers opposing philatelic imperialism (JK)

There have been reports that this deceleration of growth has also dampened prices for Chinese collectibles, including stamps, that the once white-hot P.R.C. stamp market has cooled somewhat, and that dealer buy prices for many items have dropped by 20%-30%.

In a March, 2010 StampSelector blog article ("General Commentary - the Bull in the China Shop"), I commented on the dramatic price         increases for P.R.C. material, and noted buy prices for several souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution issues. In a second article (General Commentary - Has the Bull in the China Shop Met Its Matador?), I discussed the rumors of a softening of the Chinese stamp market in January, commenting that at that time, buy prices for key items had remained strong. I've re-listed these items below, along with current buy prices.

(Prices are for VF NH

1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):

2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00
September, 2011: $ 650.00
January, 2012: $660.00
June, 2012: $ 525.00

1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00
August, 2011: $ 1,500.00
January, 2012: $ 1,400.00
June, 2012: $ 1,100.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00
August, 2011: $ 25,000.00
January, 2012: $ 25,000.00
June, 2012: $ 22,500.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00
August, 2011: $ 3,750.00
January, 2012: $ 4,100.00
June, 2012: $ 2,600.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00
August, 2011: $ 5,000.00
January, 2012: $ 8,000.00
June, 2012: $ 6,000.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00
September, 2011: $ 4,275.00
January, 2012: $ 5,350.00
June, 2012: $ 3,500.00

1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00
September, 2011: $ 150,000.00
January, 2012: $ 170,000.00
June, 2012: $ 125,000.00

1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00
August, 2011: $ 550.00
January, 2012: $ 540.00
June, 2012: $ 500.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):



2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $1,950.00
August, 2011: $ 2,350.00
January, 2012: $ 2,300.00
June, 2012: $ 1,800.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $975.00
August, 2011: $ 1,600.00

January, 2012: $ 1,550.00
June, 2012: 1,500.00

According to my sampling, there have been  definite declines in buy prices for these key items since January, averaging just over 24%.  It  is possible that this selection of key items is not representative, or that it doesn't take into account fluctuations which may have occurred on a shorter term basis, or during months for which buy prices were not noted.

It is clear that the slowing of China's economic growth has kicked in. On the plus side, the country's central bank has finally lowered its interest rates for the first time since 2008, indicating a long-awaited reversion to the policy of stimulating the economy.

My feeling is that the most likely scenario for the People's Republic will be an economic resurgence, and buy prices for its better stamps and souvenir sheets that will well exceed the highs of 2011. However, though China is still in its "wonder years", it has a large number of rather ugly warts, and it is possible that some of them could develop into tumors.

General Commentary: The Holy Grail of Philatelic Investing

Over the last 2+ years, I've published over 400 StampSelector blog articles recommending various stamps or souvenir sheets as investments. However, I have never made any comparison between the issues recommended, nor have I attempted to rate their prospects and predict which might provide the best returns.

The desire to provide some kind of stamp investment rating system ("S.I.R.S.?") is an ongoing obsession of mine, because it would be extremely valuable to be able to provide an educated guess as to which stamps will appreciate in value the most over the long-term. Obviously, a philatelic investor could use it to determine which stamps to target for investment, and a blogging hack who tips stamps, such as myself, might acquire immense influence over the stamp market by providing a credible system, and could even use such information to hoard the top-rated stamps before publishing it. Such a strategy would invite a friendly visit from the Securities and Exchange Commission and a probable prison term if the subject were stocks, which it isn't.

It is for this reason that I compare such a ratings system, or formula, to the Holy Grail of Arthurian legend, and as with the search for the mythical Grail, the paths to it are hidden due to lack of information, and remain obscured by clouds of ambiguity. Nevertheless, it is possible to list some of the criteria which might be taken into consideration in order to determine a stamp's rating.

Firstly, the formula's intended solution - the rating itself - would be a number which represents an estimate of a stamp's long-term growth, perhaps the estimated average annualized return (L.T.E.A.R.) on the investment over the next ten or twenty years. Hence, a stamp with an LTEAR of 15% have a rating of 15.

Variables which would factor into the formula would include the stamp's printing quantity and/or estimate of its current supply, the population of its country of origin and population growth rate, the country's economic growth rate and/or projection of the growth of its middle class, the country's current current population of stamp collectors, sources of external demand (such as topical, regional or "mother-country" demand, if the country of origin is a former colony, as well as the population of those with ties to the former country now living in other countries). Population aging rates might also be factored in, since serious stamp collectors tend to be middle aged or older. Ideally, the formula might also include a quantification of cultural factors, as some nations/ethnic groups have more affinity to stamp collecting than others; however, estimating this variable would probably prove insuperably difficult. Finally, there would have to be an application of the stamp market's version of the Heisenberg Principle - an incorporation of the effect of investors, speculators, investment tips, and even the rating system itself, on demand.

In all likelihood, the prospect of creating a SIRS will remain nothing more than a dream. I encourage any reader with an interest in pursuing the project to post a comment either here or on the Facebook StampSelectors group site.

General Commentary: Has the Bull in the China Shop Met His Matador?

Happy, productive stamp collectors heroically marching
together on a single path to a glorious philatelic utopia
(JK)

Since October of 2010, the People's Bank of China has raised interest rates five times in an effort to combat inflation. This tightening of monetary policy has led to a deceleration of economic growth in the P.R.C., and has been a factor in the global economic recession.

There have been reports that this deceleration of growth has also dampened prices for Chinese collectibles, including stamps, that the once white-hot P.R.C. stamp market has cooled somewhat, and that dealer buy prices for many items have dropped by 20%-30%.

In a March, 2010 StampSelector blog article ("General Commentary - the Bull in the China Shop"), I commented on the dramatic price increases for P.R.C. material, and noted buy prices for several souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution issues. I've re-listed these items below, along with current buy prices.

(Prices are for VF NH)

1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):

2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00
September, 2011: $ 650.00
January, 2012: $660.00

1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00
August, 2011: $ 1,500.00
January, 2012: $ 1,400.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00
August, 2011: $ 25,000.00
January, 2012: $ 25,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00
August, 2011: $ 3,750.00
January, 2012: $ 4,100.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00
August, 2011: $ 5,000.00
January, 2012: 8,000.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00
September, 2011: $ 4,275.00
January, 2012: $ 5,350.00

1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00
September, 2011: $ 150,000.00
January, 2012: $ 170,000.00

1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00
August, 2011: $ 550.00
January, 2012: $ 540.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):

2004: $ 300.00
2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $1,950.00
August, 2011: $ 2,350.00
January, 2012: $ 2,300.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $975.00
August, 2011: $ 1,600.00

January, 2012: $ 1,550.00

According to my sampling, the buy prices for the key items selected remain very strong, but it is possible that this selection of key items is not representative, or that it doesn't take into account fluctuations which may have occurred on a shorter term basis, or during months for which buy prices were not noted. A few items seem to have stabilized or declined slightly, while others continued to increase in value.

My view is that if there has been a dampening in the P.R.C. stamp market, it will prove to be a temporary phenomenon, assuming that the market's fundamentals aren't undermined by extreme political instability. The key items of the P.R.C. may soar more rapidly skyward, like an awakened dragon, after China's monetary policy is relaxed. For those who wish to take a more conservative approach, I recommend focusing on better items of Imperial China and foreign offices in China, which have increased more steadily over time.

In the long run, the 64 million yuan question will be whether the P.R.C. will be able to maintain a politically and socially stable society in the midst of dramatic social and economic change. It is likely that the government will manage to succeed in its traditional policy of balancing repression and gradual reform, but if the economy falters and expectations of future growth are dashed, then, to paraphrase Robert Graves, all of the poisons which lurk in the mud could hatch out.