General Commentary: Comparing the Long-term Performance of First Issues

   I recently purchased a 1940 Scott Catalogue in order to make general comparisons between the the market values of various stamps then and now, and to gauge their  relative long-term performance.

       Some collectors feel  nostalgia for the so-called Classic
Period of Philately, the first century of postage stamps, during which all of the world's issues could be listed and described in a single convenient volume, rather than the unwieldy six volume set that collectors must use today. Issuance policies of that period were far more conservative than now, designs were usually dignified and attractive, and the subjects tended to be significant and relevant to the issuing country's history or culture. The idea of issuing a "Love" stamp or a stamp honoring a cartoon character would have been considered laughable during this period, and even the poorer nations would not have considered pandering to collectors in the wealthier ones by issuing stamps picturing contemporary pop music stars. To some extent, the decision by Scott Publishing to issue a Classic Specialized Catalogue reflects this lingering sense of nostalgia.

    The year 1940 represents a good starting point for taking an overview of the growth of the modern stamp market. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the most famous stamp-collecting  U.S. President, was in office, and the U.S. was mobilizing for war and just beginning its economic recovery from the Great Depression.

In the interest of conciseness and consistency, I've decided to consider only the first issues of stamps from major nations in both the affluent and developing world, and to include only the catalogue values of used stamps, because these countries' first stamps in unused condition are often rare and unaffordable to most collectors. I've calculated the stamps' approximate average long-term compounded rates of return over the last 73 years (since 1940) using the Rule of 72, which works well when measuring exponential growth over long periods of time. In cases where a currently existing nation did not exist in 1940 but stamps were issued by a colonial power, I have listed the first stamps issued for the colony. Though somewhat "Americentric", I've utilized the old Scott country order (U.S., Great Britain and Commonwealth, General Foreign A-Z) to list the stamps.

- United States 1847 5c Franklin/10c Washington (Scott #1-2); Scott 1940 = $ 41.50, Scott 2013= $ 1,575.- ; Approximate Long-term Annual Compounded  Rate of Return (ALTACROR) = 5%;

- Great Britain 1840 1p Black (Scott #1); Scott '40= $2.00; Scott '13= $300.- ; ALTACROR = 7%;

- Australia 1913 Kangaroo (Scott #1-15); Scott '40= $ 37.18; Scott '13= $ 645.75 ; ALTACROR = 4%;

- Canada 1851 3p Red (Scott #1); Scott '40= $ 15.00; Scott '13= $ 1,000.-  ; ALTACROR =  6%;

- Cape of Good Hope  1853 Hope Seated (Scott #1-2); Scott '40 = $ 18.00; Scott '13= $ 445.- ; ALTACROR =  4.5%;

- India 1854 Victoria (Scott #2-6); Scott '40 =$ 26.75; Scott '13 =$ 610.- ; ALTACROR= 4.5%;

- Lagos 1874-75 Victoria (Scott #1-6); Scott '40 =$ 32.00; Scott '13= $  260.-  ; ALTACROR = 3%;

- Brazil 1843 Bull's Eyes (Scott #1-3); Scott '40= $ 77.50; Scott '13 = $  2,250.- ; ALTACROR = 5%;

- China 1878 Dragon (Scott #1-3); Scott '40 = $ 6.00; Scott '13 = $ 1,425.- ; ALTACROR =  8%;

- Colombia 1859 Arms (Scott # 1-7); Scott '40 = $ 25.50; Scott '13 =$ 595.- ; ALTACROR = 4.5%;

- Egypt 1866 Surcharge (Scott #1-7); Scott '40 = $  61.25; Scott '13 = $725.50 ; ALTACROR = 3.5%;

- Ethiopia 1895 Menelik II (Scott #1-7); Scott '40 = $ 1.80; Scott '13 = $ 14.- ; ALTACROR =  3%;

- France 1849-59 Ceres (Scott #1-3, 6-7, 9); Scott '40 = $ 35.35; Scott '13 = $ 2,610.- ; ALTACROR =   6%;

- Germany 1872 Small Shield (Scott #1-11); Scott '40 = $ 21.65; Scott '13 = $  951.- ; ALTACROR = 5%;

- Indochina 1889 Surcharge (Scott #1-2); Scott '40 = $ 2.85; Scott '13 = $ 107.- ; ALTACROR =  5%;

- Iran 1875 Arms ( first postally cancelled issue - Scott #11-14); Scott '40 = $ 30.00; Scott '13 = $ 280.- ; ALTACROR =  3%; 

- Italy 1862 Victor Emmanuel II (Scott #17-21); Scott '40 = $ 23.50; Scott '13 = $ 3,000.- ; ALTACROR = 7 %;

- Japan 1871 Dragons (Scott #1-4); Scott '40 = $  28.50; Scott '13 = $ 1,625.- ; ALTACROR =5.5%; 

- Korea 1895 Yin Yang (first stamps to be used- Scott #6-9); Scott '40= $ 1.65; Scott '13 = $ 80.- ; ALTACROR =  5%;

-  Mexico 1856 Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla (Scott #1-5) ; Scott '40 = $ 26.25; Scott '13 = $ 358.50 ; ALTACROR = 3.5 %;

- Netherlands 1852 William III (Scott #1-3) ; Scott '40 = $ 8.35; Scott '13 = $ 181.50 ; ALTACROR= 4%;

- Netherlands Indies 1854 William III (Scott #1); Scott '40 = $ 6.50; Scott '13 = $ 100.-; ALTACROR = 4%;

- Philippines (Spanish) 1854 Isabella II (Scott #1-5); Scott '40 = $ 205.00; Scott '13 = $ 1,100.- ; ALTACROR=   2.25%; 

- Poland 1860 Arms (Scott #1); Scott '40 = $ 8.00; Scott '13 = $ 250.- ; ALTACROR = 4.75 %;

- Russia 1857 Arms (Scott #1); Scott '40 = $ 25.00; Scott '13 = $ 850.- ; ALTACROR =  5 %;

- Spain 1850 Isabella II (Scott #1-5); Scott '40 = $ 187.50; Scott '13 = $ 3,367.- ; ALTACROR =  4%;

- Sweden 1855 Arms (Scott #1-5); Scott '40 = $ 151.00; Scott '13 = $ 9,400.- ; ALTACROR = 6%;

- Thailand 1883 Chulalongkorn I (Scott #1-6); Scott '40 = $ 2.60; Scott '13 = $135.50; ALTACROR=  5.5%;

   These rates average out to about 4.75%, which significantly beats the very long-term U.S. inflation rate since 1872 of 2.16%,  but is less impressive when compared to the 3.9% inflation rate since 1945.

   The performance of Great Britain's Penny Black is particularly interesting, because it is the world's first postage stamp and probably also the world's most famous stamp, and is therefore in demand by many stamp collectors worldwide.  About 69 million were issued in 1840, very few were collected unused, and a substantial number of used examples (perhaps 1-3 million?) remain, though most are in poor to average condition. It is possible to make an educated guess concerning its price performance since 1840 by assuming a "hypothetical 1840 catalogue value" of 1/2 cent to 1c for the stamp in used condition (as there were no stamp catalogues in 1840), which would imply an increase by a factor of 30,000 to 60,000, and a 173 year compound annual  rate of appreciation of 6% or 7%, depending upon which catalogue value is used.  If the relatively consistent general worldwide demand for the Penny Black could  be segregated from the more dynamic and particular demand of collectors of Great Britain, British Commonwealth, and philatelic investors, then it might be possible to gauge the long-term global growth of the stamp collecting population, but this, alas, is impossible.

General Commentary: Does Absence Make the Heart Grow Fonder? Former Colonies' Ties to Former Colonial Powers and Philatelic Investment

When pondering whether to invest in stamps of a former colonial power, a complicated and unquantifiable yet nevertheless important factor to consider is the sentiment of the former power's so-called "subject peoples." This is especially true in the case of former colonies which are currently prospering or rapidly developing economies, or which are beginning to develop significant stamp collecting populations.

In all cases, the former colonial powers are now First World nations, with highly developed industrialized economies and relatively affluent populations (compared to most of the rest of the world). The initial demand for stamps of these countries' former colonies originates in the home countries themselves, because usually in the first years following independence, the former colonies are too poor to sustain a significant domestic stamp collecting population. As a former colony's economy develops, so too may its stamp collecting population, which will probably focus mainly upon the country's own stamps and ignore the stamps of the former colonial power, especially since resentments toward it may linger. However, if ties to the former colonial power improve, or if its administration of its former colony lasted a long time and it exerted a strong cultural influence on the people, then an interest in the stamps of the former colonial power may develop.

Over time, resentment against the former colonial power usually diminishes. Should the feeling remain strong as a former colony's economy and stamp collecting population develops, then the initial focus will be on the independent country's own stamps, as both the stamps of the colonial period and of the former colonizer will be spurned. Over time, however, interest in stamps of the colonial period, and possibly also in stamps of the former colonizer, may also increase. Of course, hatred of or resentment towards a particular country or regime do not always deter people from collecting its stamps. The vast majority of those who collect German, Japanese, or Italian occupation stamps of World War II do not support Nazism, Japanese Militarism, or Fascism.


The cultural/political factor is very difficult to gauge, yet should be considered because it is a potentially significant source of demand. For instance, as India develops economically and the number of Indian stamp collectors increases, how many of them will collect stamps of Great Britain? Similarly, will collectors in former French, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, or Belgian colonies collect stamps of their former "home countries?" Perhaps it is possible to profit from betting on forgiveness, or at least reticence.

Stamp Investment Tips: Russia 1935 Moscow-San Francisco Flight Surcharge (Scott #C68)

In 1935, Russia issued a stamp for it first flight from Moscow to San Francisco (Scott #C68) by applying a 1r sucharge to its earlier 10k S. A. Levanesky stamp. Only 10,000 were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused stamp at $ 1,250.00 ($ 3,250.00 for NH). The stamp has appeal to Aviation topicalists as well as collectors of Russia.

The market for better Russian stamps from the Czarist through Stalin periods is very hot right now. With 142 million people, Russia is the 8th or 9th largest economy in the world, with vast reserves of natural resources and a highly educated population. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced several major economic crises in its transition to capitalism, although annual GDP growth has been strong over the last 5 years, at around 7%. The country is still plagued by corruption and organized crime, making it somewhat reminiscent of America during its "Wild West" and Robber-Baron periods. Nevertheless, the middle class has grown from just 8 million people in 2000 to 55 million in 2006.

I favor all better items of Russia, as I believe it likely that both its economy and stamp collecting population will grow substantially over the next decades.

Note that counterfeit overprints exist for this issue, so expertization is strongly advised.