General Commentary: Cultural Factors Influencing the Popularity of Stamp Collecting

   While economic factors play a crucial role in determining the size of a country's stamp collecting population, a less quantifiable but nevertheless significant set of influences involve its cultural values.

   For over a century after the first postage stamp was issued, the stamp market was centered in Europe (especially Germany), followed by the United States. Japan became the first Asian nation to develop a significant stamp collecting market, largely due to its miraculous economic progress following its defeat in World War II. Over the last 30 years, China has superseded Europe, the U.S., and Japan as the principal philatelic market, and other East Asian nations (the so-called Asian Tigers) have also developed significant markets.

   Clearly, much of this transformation is due to the growth of the middle class in these rapidly developing nations, where once no middle class existed and most of the wealth and power were in the hands of a tiny oligarchical elite. What is less obvious is to what extent culture has played a role in determining the degree and nature of that transformation. Does the growth of a country's middle class always signal a proportionate growth in the number of its stamp collectors, or do other less measurable factors come into play?

   In other words, do countries with similar economic growth but different cultural values develop proportionately similar stamp collecting populations based upon the growth of their middle classes? If not, then how do these values promote or diminish interest in the hobby?

  These are important questions to consider if one is attempting to predict demand for a country's stamps. Before addressing them, I wish to state that I am in no way claiming that any one cultural, religious, or ethnic group is better than any other. Neither am I assuming that cultural values are static, or impervious to economic or other influences.

   The ostensibly cultural determinant is particularly striking when comparing the stamp market of two affluent nations: the U.S. and Germany. As noted in an earlier article, it is very difficult to estimate the number of "serious stamp collectors" in a country. For the most part, only the population of serious collectors  (however broadly characterized) is of interest from a philatelic investment perspective, because non-serious or beginning collectors tend to be less committed to the hobby, and tend to focus on common, inexpensive material. Based completely on experience, a few shreds of evidence, and hearsay, I would guess that there are no more than 250,000 serious philatelists in the U.S. (perhaps .07% of the population) vs. .5 million to 1 million in Germany (.6% to 1.25%).

    Why is this so? However it is defined, the middle class is not 8 to 14 times larger as a proportion of the population in Germany than it is in the U.S.. Why are Germans, on the whole, 8 to 14 times more interested in stamps than Americans?

   As yet, there has been no research done on the sociology of stamp collecting. We have no clue as to whether, in the future, Koreans will be more interested in stamps than Vietnamese, whether Buddhists will be more interested than Muslims, etc..

   In the last three decades, the stamp collecting cohort within the People's Republic of China has become the world's largest. 20 million of the world's 50-60 million stamp collectors are Chinese, and according to at least one article, all of them are "serious" collectors. I think it more likely that between 4 and 6 million Chinese are serious stamp collectors (about .3% - .5% of the population), which raises the question: why are Chinese 4 to 7 times more interested in stamps than Americans?

   While I've found nothing in the way of data suggesting an answer to this question, my instincts tell me that the answer relates to two variables.

   The first is how intellectuals are perceived by society. Since the Pioneer Era, there has existed in the U.S. a strong anti-intellectual tendency, coupled with a belief that intellectuals are odd, weak, or socially awkward, as well as arrogant and elitist. Collecting stamps is considered an esoteric pursuit of introverted intellectuals - a hobby for "geeks", "nerds", "eggheads", etc.. Perhaps countries in which intellectuals are accorded higher status (like Germany and China, for instance) tend to have a higher population of serious stamp collectors.

   The second relates to patriotism. Since most stamp collectors focus on the stamps of their countries, it stands to reason that where there is interest in the history and culture of a country, there will be a greater interest in its stamps. Countries in which the citizens tend to identify with tribal or ethnic groups,  in which most of the population does not identify with the country as a nation, or in which most of the population has become disillusioned, will be less likely to collect. While patriotism is not dead in the U.S., it has certainly declined significantly over the last 50 years.

   Obviously these are just hunches, and the actual factors which influence the popularity of stamp collecting in a particular country are far more subtle and complex.

   Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are encouraged to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.      
  

General Commentary: The Global Growth of the Middle Class

   One of the most radical transformations of the 21st century could be the explosive growth of the middle class, especially in countries where virtually no middle class existed until recently.  I am convinced that aside from the many beneficial social and political effects of this change, it will also mean that more people will have the time and money to engage in recreational activities, including hobbies such as stamp collecting.

   According to Ernst and Young, the population of the world's middle class will increase by over 260% from 2009 to 2030, and by that year, two thirds of the middle class will live in the Asia-Pacific region. These trends, along with a concurrent trend toward global aging, have important implications for the philatelic investor.

    The break down of the projections provided by Ernst and Young is interesting: only North America's middle class declines in both absolute terms and as a proportion of the world's population: from 338 million/ 18% (2009) to 322 million/ 7% (2030). Europe's rises slightly in absolute terms but declines proportionately: from 664 million/ 36% to 680 million/ 14%.  It is the developing world which experiences the most dramatic transformation, led by Asia/Pacific: 525 million/28% to 3,228 million/ 66%. Central and South America and the Middle East/North Africa see a dramatic rise in absolute terms along with a corresponding proportionate decline: 181 million/10% to 313 million/6% and 105 million/6% and 234 million/5%, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa's middle class increases in population by 334%, from 32 million to 107 million, while remaining 2% of the the global total.

   Obviously, these are only projections, and any number of circumstances may render them inaccurate. Furthermore, many other factors may also influence the future growth or decline in demand for a particular country's (or region's) stamps, so the middle class population stats should not be viewed alone when making such predictions.

   Other than the general positive effect of this "rising tide lifting all boats" on the hobby, the demand for certain stamps will be heightened when favorable trends coincide. The greatest increases in demand will be for better issues with popular topics from countries where both the growth of the middle class and aging of the population are occurring most rapidly. 

    The Stamp Auction Bidders and Consignors Union (SABACU) is a forum for discussing stamp auctions, and represents the interests of stamp auction bidders and consignors in their dealings with stamp auctioneers. All stamp collectors and dealers are welcome to join. 
  

General Commentary: Demographic Trends Favoring a Multi-Decade Bull Market in Stamps

In the 2009 StampSelector article "General Commentary: Demographics and the Stamp Market", I described demographic trends which determined whether a particular country's stamps would tend to rise or decline in value. As I am now convinced that various long-term global trends favor a multi-decade bull market for better stamps in general, I've decided to summarize some of the most important of these trends:

1) The Rise of a Global Middle Class: I've noted this trend in several articles, including "General Commentary: When Does a Collector Become an Investor?" The basic thrust of the argument is that democratization and the emergence of a global middle class, especially in rapidly developing countries that were once considered part of the "Third World", is bringing tens of millions of people into the philatelic fold.

2) Global Aging: I described this trend in the article "General Commentary: The Aging Population and the Coming Stamp Market Boom", which notes the tendency of many collectors to begin young, put the hobby on hold for several decades, and then return to it on a more serious basis later in life, implying that the population of stamp collectors will increase as the proportion of middle-aged and elderly people grows.

3) The Growth of the Internet: while there is no substitute for actually examining stamps before purchasing them, the buying and selling of stamps online has grown by leaps and bounds over the last decade. Stamps are a nearly ideal commodity for online trading, as they are small, flat, and easy to scan. While the risk of purchasing overgraded stamps still exists, many venues, including Ebay, give buyers with the right to return stamps for a refund, and may also provide feedback or references. An ever-increasing wealth of accessible information may be found online, as well the opportunity to join collector groups and clubs via social networking. These changes have revolutionized collectibles markets in general, and will continue to do so as more and more people gain Internet access. It is all quite astounding when one considers that only 20 years ago, a collector had to amass a substantial philatelic library in order to have access to information that is now free, that he probably attended only one or two local stamp clubs (if any), and that the only convenient means of disposing of his collection were either by selling it to a dealer or through a stamp auctioneer.

4) Increasing Social and Technological Complexification: the rapid social and technological advances of recent years and the unprecedented dynamism of Modern Society have their drawbacks, including higher levels of stress, anxiety, and depression. Clearly, many in our society suffer from "complexity burn-out," and do well to seek out activities which are refreshingly simple, relaxing, and enjoyable. Stamp collecting has been used as a form of therapy to help handicapped and autistic children, and a charitable organization, "Stamps for the Wounded", promotes stamp collecting among wounded soldiers in hospitals, in order to raise their morale and help them to heal more quickly. Whether as a form of mental health maintenance or simply as recreation, Philately offers an attractive alternative for those who are tired of the noise and inanity of television or video games.

Those interested in learning more about investing in stamps are encouraged to read the Philatelic Investment Guide ($5), available on Kindle, and accessible from any computer.

General Commentary - Demographics and the Stamp Market

For anyone interested in investing in stamps, a demographic overview is crucial. Unfortunately, as far as stamp collecting in particular is concerned, hard demographic data are practically non-existent.


The problem is partly a matter of definition. In attempting to find out how many stamp collectors there are in the world or in a particular country, one must first ask: what is meant by the term "stamp collector?" The population of individuals who have saved at least a single stamp will be much higher than that of "serious" collectors - those who spend a significant amount of time and money on their hobby. Defining serious collectors using the amount of money that the individual spends on the hobby is also problematic, both because economic conditions vary from country to country, and because it is possible to be a serious stamp collector without spending very much money. Estimates of the total number of U.S. stamp collectors have ranged as high as 20 million, but based upon the number of collectors subscribing to major philatelic periodicals, membership in philatelic societies, and attendance at major philatelic exhibitions, a more realistic estimate of the number of "serious" U.S. stamp collectors would probably range from 150,000 - 300,000.


Worldwide, the figure of 50 million is a much-quoted estimate of the total number of stamp collectors. Again, there is the problem of definition - does the estimate include all stamp collectors, including those who are "less serious?" Would a broad definition of "stamp collector" increase the estimate to the hundreds of millions? And how many "serious" stamp collectors are there within this group?


For a philatelic investor considering investing in the stamps of a particular country, estimating the number of serious collectors of that country's stamps, and whether the collector population is growing, is extremely important, but also extremely difficult. One useful gauge, which may be derived from information which is available, is projecting a country's economic growth and whether the benefits of that growth are being spread around, or whether they are enriching only a tiny elite- in other words, does a particular country have a growing middle class? Even answering that question is insufficient, however, because less measurable cultural factors exist which determine what proportion of the population that can afford a hobby will collect stamps. Some nations, such as Germany, are more culturally attuned to philately than others. Another complication is that often, many collectors of a particular country's stamps are not citizens of that country.

Ultimately, the best solution for the philatelic investor focusing upon a particular country is to attempt to project the growth of its middle class, and then to make a very open-ended educated guess concerning the future of its stamp collecting population.