Stamp Investment Tip: Russia - Offices in China

Russian soldiers in Manchuria, 1900

 In the late 19th Century, Russians aimed for control over the Amur River for navigation, as well as the Chinese all-weather ports of Dairen and Port Arthur in the Liaodong peninsula. The rise of Japan as an Asian power provoked Russia's anxiety, especially in light of expanding Japanese influence in Korea. Following Japan's victory in the First Sino-Japanese War of 1895, the Triple Intervention of Russia, Germany and France forced Japan to return the territory won in Liaodong, leading to a de facto Sino-Russian alliance.

 However, local Chinese in Manchuria were incensed at these Russian advances and began to harass Russians and vandalize Russian installations, such as the Chinese Eastern Railway. In June 1900, the Chinese bombarded the town of Blagoveshchensk on the Russian side of the Amur, and in retaliation, the Russians massacred several thousand Chinese and Manchus in that town. The Czar's government used the pretext of Boxer Rebellion to move some 200,000 troops into the area to crush the Boxers, who retaliated by launching a guerrilla war against the Russians, which continued until their defeat by the Japanese in the Russo-Japanese War.


 The Russians issued stamps for their post offices in China in 1899. These were Russian stamps overprinted with the word "KITAI" (Russian for "China") in Cyrillic script. The overprint was applied to all types of stamps up to 1916.  Although the post offices had always accepted Chinese currency at par, a Chinese cent being considered equivalent to a kopeck, in 1917 the overprint was changed to clarify the situation, simply consisting of the value in Chinese money and using Latin letters.  A later round of overprints, in 1920, saw little use, since all Russian post offices in China were closed in that year.

   Many of the stamps of the Russian Offices in China are quite inexpensive, but since all have overprints, I recommend purchase of those which are sufficiently valuable to justify the cost of expertization.. While no quantities issued information is available for these stamps, I estimate that fewer than 1,000 of each of those cataloging $ 250+ were issued, and possibly fewer than 200 for the most valuable. I've listed these stamps and their Scott '14 Catalog Values for unused below:

• 1899-1904 7k Dark Blue, inverted red overprint (Scott #5a; $500.-)
• 1904-08 10k Dark Blue, red overprint  (Scott #11; $1,450.-)
• 1904-08 5r Multi-colored, inverted red overprint (Scott #21a; $375.- )
• 1917 $5 on 5r Multi-colored, inverted surcharge (Scott #68a; $500.- )
• 1920 5c on 5k Claret, double surcharge (Scott #80b; $250.-)

   I consider all better stamps of the various foreign offices in China to be long-term investments. As with all stamps issued by the colonial powers in China, the Russian Offices stamps have been neglected because the Chinese view them as shameful relics of that period of subjugation, which they are. Until reticence replaces resentment and demand for the Foreign Offices is boosted among Chinese collectors, the stamps' values will probably continue to increase steadily, based mostly on collector demand in Russia.

   Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are encouraged to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.     

General Commentary: Is the PRC Stamp Market Bottoming Out?

It's been about 2 years since I last updated my survey of market values for popular issues of the People's Republic of China. After having taken a precipitous fall between August of 2011 and June of 2012, the market's calmed somewhat.

Happy Patriotic
Farm Worker in
the People's Republic's
Socialist Utopia
Cheerfully Displays
His Little Red
Stamp Album (JK)

In a March, 2010 StampSelector blog article ("General Commentary - the Bull in the China Shop"), I commented on the dramatic price increases for P.R.C. material, and noted buy prices for several souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution issues. In a second article (General Commentary - Has the Bull in the China Shop Met Its Matador?), I discussed the rumors of a softening of the Chinese stamp market in January, commenting that at that time, buy prices for key items had remained strong. A third (General Commentary - Has the Bull in the China Shop Become Ground Beef?) commented on the dramatic fall in values. I've re-listed the items surveyed below, along with current buy prices.

(Prices are for VF NH):

1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):

2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00
September, 2011: $ 650.00
January, 2012: $660.00
June, 2012: $ 525.00 

April, 2014: $ 500.00

1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00
August, 2011: $ 1,500.00
January, 2012: $ 1,400.00
June, 2012: $ 1,100.00
April, 2014: $ 950.00

1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00
August, 2011: $ 25,000.00
January, 2012: $ 25,000.00
June, 2012: $ 22,500.00
April, 2014: $ 20,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00
August, 2011: $ 3,750.00
January, 2012: $ 4,100.00
June, 2012: $ 2,600.00
April, 2014: $ 2,300.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00
August, 2011: $ 5,000.00
January, 2012: $ 8,000.00
June, 2012: $ 6,000.00
April, 2014: $ 5,000.00

1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00
September, 2011: $ 4,275.00
January, 2012: $ 5,350.00
June, 2012: $ 3,500.00
April, 2014: $ 3,250.00

1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00
September, 2011: $ 150,000.00
January, 2012: $ 170,000.00
June, 2012: $ 125,000.00
April, 2014: $ 120,000.00

1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00
August, 2011: $ 550.00
January, 2012: $ 540.00
June, 2012: $ 500.00
April, 2014: $ 450.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):



2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $1,950.00
August, 2011: $ 2,350.00
January, 2012: $ 2,300.00
June, 2012: $ 1,800.00
April, 2014: $ 1,700.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $975.00
August, 2011: $ 1,600.00

January, 2012: $ 1,550.00
June, 2012: 1,500.00
April, 2014: 1,400.00

The declines in buy prices for these key items have averaged just over 5.7% for the last 2 years. The pace of decline has slowed significantly, and it's possible that the market values of better PRC stamps are nearing their bottom. Note that this selection of stamps is not representative of the PRC stamp market as a whole, anddoesn't take into account fluctuations which may have occurred on a shorter term basis, or during months for which buy prices were not noted.

My feeling is that the most likely scenario for the People's Republic will be an economic resurgence, and buy prices for its better stamps and souvenir sheets that will well exceed the highs of 2011. However, though China is still in its "wonder years", it has a large number of rather ugly warts, and it is possible that some of them could develop into tumors.

Stamp Investment Tip: Republic of China 1962 UNICEF Souvenir Sheet (Scott #1341a)

  In 1962, the Republic of China issued a souvenir sheet commemorating the 15th Anniversary of UNICEF (Scott #1341a). 100,000 sheets were issued, and Scott '14 prices them unused at $16.00.

  I continue to like the U.N. as a topic, long-term. The market for U.N.-related topicals should grow over the very long haul as institutions of world government develop in order to take on serious (and possibly existential) problems which can only be coped with globally. Despite the present inadequacy, corruption, and ineffectiveness of the U.N., I view its reform and gradual strengthening as a gradual but irresistible trend.

   Better stamps and souvenir sheets of the R.O.C. have done well over the last few decades, but the market has been cooler than that for stamps of the People's Republic. I believe that as capitalism and incremental democratization take hold in the P.R.C., relations between the "two Chinas" will gradually improve, as will demand for stamps of the R.O.C.. The process of thawing may have already begun: as of 2008, more than $150 billion was invested in the P.R.C. by Taiwanese companies. About 10% of the Taiwanese labor force works in the P.R.C., often to run their own businesses.

    In the meantime, most of the demand for stamps of Taiwan will originate from collectors in Taiwan itself and among overseas Chinese (of which there are approximately 35 million). Taiwan, a nation of 23 million people, is one of the four "Asian Tigers," and has experienced explosive economic growth and industrialization over the last 5 decades. Annual GDP growth has averaged just under 4% over the last 5 years, but this partly reflects a contraction of 2% in 2009, a result of the global financial mess.

  Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are encouraged to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.       

Phila-Trivia - A Brief History of the Early Chinese Postal System

China was one of the first countries to have a postal service system – starting early in the Zhou dynasty (1111-255 BC).

In the beginning the postal service was used for official documents only, primarily military in nature. A system of daks, or stations, was developed to aid in transferring the messages.  All messages were transferred by couriers, who would travel from dak to dak. Upon arrival at a dak, the first courier would hand off the message to a new courier who would begin the next leg of the journey, and so on.

In the Qin dynasty (221 – 206 BC), small kingdoms were brought under unification and a nation-wide postal system was developed. Though the period of peace and unification did not last long, the postal system components remained in use regionally and could be easily be brought back together during a new

Fish-shaped Envelopes, Qin Dynasty

peacetime.

In the Han dynasty (206 BC – 220 AD), the postal system reached the Roman Empire via the silk road, demonstrating its vast network. The postal system continued to expand and develop, with couriers traveling by land and water to reach their destinations.

Express tallies, Sung Dynasty

During the prosperous Tang dynasty (618-907), the postal system was flourishing along with country itself.  There were more than 1600 daks at this time. Couriers had set schedules and efficiency increased. Under the Sung dynasty (960 – 1270), ‘express’ mail was created, primarily in response to the frequent wars and invaders on the north and west borders. Mail was ranked using three categories called tallies:  gold, silver, and copper depending on the urgency. Mail with a gold tally should be sent at 250 km per day, silver at 200 km per day, and copper at 150 km per day.

By the time the Yuan dynasty rolled around in the late 13th century, the mail system was so vast that Marco Polo was compelled to comment on its scale and efficiency.

During the majority of the postal system’s history, the mail was used for official government communication and military use. It wasn’t until the 15th century that private post offices appeared, and traders began to use the private post as a way to communicate and make payments.

In the late 1800s, the system began to be influenced by those in Western countries. The government issued

its first stamps in 1876, the Imperial Dragon set. By the time of the 1911 revolution, the Chinese government closed all daks to make way for more modern and efficient means, and had brought the majority of the private post companies under control of the government.

(from an article by Meg Doherty) 
....................................

Information concerning printing quantities of stamps is often useful in determining which may turn out to be
good investments. The StampSelector Scarce Stamp Quantities Issued List (SSSSQIL) currently includes over 9,700 listings of stamps and souvenir sheets with issuance quantities of 100,000 or less.

Stamp Investment Tip: Macao 1898-1903 King Carlos (Scott #75-103)

  Between 1898 and 1903, the Portuguese issued a set of 29 stamps portraying King Carlos for Macao (Scott #75-103). Quantity issued information is not available for this set, but I estimate that 5,000 to 10,000 were issued, and Scott '13 prices the unused set at $710.50.

   It is likely that most of these sets were used as postage and discarded.

In my opinion, all of the better stamps of the European and other foreign Colonies/Possessions in China should be considered for investment, as they have dual markets both in their former home countries and in China.

In 1999, Macao became a special administrative district of the People's Republic of China. With a population of about 500,000, Macao's economy is dependent upon tourism, much of it geared toward gambling, although important secondary sectors include apparel manufacturing and financial services. Annual GDP growth has been high, averaging over 9% over the last 7 years. The fact that much of Macao's economic growth has been driven by a regional monopoly on gaming is a little worrisome, because obviously there is no guarantee that the People's Republic won't relax restrictions on gambling in the rest of China, allowing more competition. Nevertheless, I feel that certain scarce issues of this former colony are grossly undervalued, given the number of collectors who will be bidding for them.

Those interested in learning more about investing in stamps are encouraged to read the Philatelic Investment Guide ($5), available on Kindle, and accessible from any computer.

Stamp Investment Tip: Republic of China 1955 Chiang Kai-Shek 69th Birthday Souvenir Sheet (Scott #1126a)

  In 1955, the Republic of China issued a souvenir sheet celebrating the 69th Birthday of its beloved dictator, Chiang Kai-shek (Scott #1126a). Only 20,000 were issued, and Scott '13 prices the unused souvenir sheet at $180.- .

Better stamps and souvenir sheets of the R.O.C. have done well over the last few decades, but the market has been cooler than that for stamps of the People's Republic. I believe that as capitalism and incremental democratization take hold in the P.R.C., relations between the "two Chinas" will gradually improve, as will demand for stamps of the R.O.C.. The process of thawing may have already begun: as of 2008, more than $ 150 billion has been invested in the P.R.C. by Taiwanese companies, and about 10% of the Taiwanese labor force works in the P.R.C., often to run their own businesses.

In the meantime, most of the demand for stamps of Taiwan will originate from collectors in Taiwan itself and among overseas Chinese (of which there are approximately 35 million). Taiwan, a nation of 23 million people, is one of the four "Asian Tigers," and has experienced explosive economic growth and industrialization over the last 5 decades. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the last 5 years, but this reflects the zero growth of 2009, a result of the global financial mess.

Has the Bull in the China Shop Become Ground Beef?

Since October of 2010, the People's Bank of China has raised interest rates five times in an effort to combat inflation. This tightening of monetary policy has led to a deceleration of economic growth in the P.R.C., and has been a factor in the global economic recession.

Enlightened workers opposing philatelic imperialism (JK)

There have been reports that this deceleration of growth has also dampened prices for Chinese collectibles, including stamps, that the once white-hot P.R.C. stamp market has cooled somewhat, and that dealer buy prices for many items have dropped by 20%-30%.

In a March, 2010 StampSelector blog article ("General Commentary - the Bull in the China Shop"), I commented on the dramatic price         increases for P.R.C. material, and noted buy prices for several souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution issues. In a second article (General Commentary - Has the Bull in the China Shop Met Its Matador?), I discussed the rumors of a softening of the Chinese stamp market in January, commenting that at that time, buy prices for key items had remained strong. I've re-listed these items below, along with current buy prices.

(Prices are for VF NH

1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):

2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00
September, 2011: $ 650.00
January, 2012: $660.00
June, 2012: $ 525.00

1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00
August, 2011: $ 1,500.00
January, 2012: $ 1,400.00
June, 2012: $ 1,100.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00
August, 2011: $ 25,000.00
January, 2012: $ 25,000.00
June, 2012: $ 22,500.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00
August, 2011: $ 3,750.00
January, 2012: $ 4,100.00
June, 2012: $ 2,600.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00
August, 2011: $ 5,000.00
January, 2012: $ 8,000.00
June, 2012: $ 6,000.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00
September, 2011: $ 4,275.00
January, 2012: $ 5,350.00
June, 2012: $ 3,500.00

1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00
September, 2011: $ 150,000.00
January, 2012: $ 170,000.00
June, 2012: $ 125,000.00

1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00
August, 2011: $ 550.00
January, 2012: $ 540.00
June, 2012: $ 500.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):



2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $1,950.00
August, 2011: $ 2,350.00
January, 2012: $ 2,300.00
June, 2012: $ 1,800.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $975.00
August, 2011: $ 1,600.00

January, 2012: $ 1,550.00
June, 2012: 1,500.00

According to my sampling, there have been  definite declines in buy prices for these key items since January, averaging just over 24%.  It  is possible that this selection of key items is not representative, or that it doesn't take into account fluctuations which may have occurred on a shorter term basis, or during months for which buy prices were not noted.

It is clear that the slowing of China's economic growth has kicked in. On the plus side, the country's central bank has finally lowered its interest rates for the first time since 2008, indicating a long-awaited reversion to the policy of stimulating the economy.

My feeling is that the most likely scenario for the People's Republic will be an economic resurgence, and buy prices for its better stamps and souvenir sheets that will well exceed the highs of 2011. However, though China is still in its "wonder years", it has a large number of rather ugly warts, and it is possible that some of them could develop into tumors.

General Commentary: Has the Bull in the China Shop Met His Matador?

Happy, productive stamp collectors heroically marching
together on a single path to a glorious philatelic utopia
(JK)

Since October of 2010, the People's Bank of China has raised interest rates five times in an effort to combat inflation. This tightening of monetary policy has led to a deceleration of economic growth in the P.R.C., and has been a factor in the global economic recession.

There have been reports that this deceleration of growth has also dampened prices for Chinese collectibles, including stamps, that the once white-hot P.R.C. stamp market has cooled somewhat, and that dealer buy prices for many items have dropped by 20%-30%.

In a March, 2010 StampSelector blog article ("General Commentary - the Bull in the China Shop"), I commented on the dramatic price increases for P.R.C. material, and noted buy prices for several souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution issues. I've re-listed these items below, along with current buy prices.

(Prices are for VF NH)

1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):

2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00
September, 2011: $ 650.00
January, 2012: $660.00

1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00
August, 2011: $ 1,500.00
January, 2012: $ 1,400.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00
August, 2011: $ 25,000.00
January, 2012: $ 25,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00
August, 2011: $ 3,750.00
January, 2012: $ 4,100.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00
August, 2011: $ 5,000.00
January, 2012: 8,000.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00
September, 2011: $ 4,275.00
January, 2012: $ 5,350.00

1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00
September, 2011: $ 150,000.00
January, 2012: $ 170,000.00

1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00
August, 2011: $ 550.00
January, 2012: $ 540.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):

2004: $ 300.00
2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $1,950.00
August, 2011: $ 2,350.00
January, 2012: $ 2,300.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $975.00
August, 2011: $ 1,600.00

January, 2012: $ 1,550.00

According to my sampling, the buy prices for the key items selected remain very strong, but it is possible that this selection of key items is not representative, or that it doesn't take into account fluctuations which may have occurred on a shorter term basis, or during months for which buy prices were not noted. A few items seem to have stabilized or declined slightly, while others continued to increase in value.

My view is that if there has been a dampening in the P.R.C. stamp market, it will prove to be a temporary phenomenon, assuming that the market's fundamentals aren't undermined by extreme political instability. The key items of the P.R.C. may soar more rapidly skyward, like an awakened dragon, after China's monetary policy is relaxed. For those who wish to take a more conservative approach, I recommend focusing on better items of Imperial China and foreign offices in China, which have increased more steadily over time.

In the long run, the 64 million yuan question will be whether the P.R.C. will be able to maintain a politically and socially stable society in the midst of dramatic social and economic change. It is likely that the government will manage to succeed in its traditional policy of balancing repression and gradual reform, but if the economy falters and expectations of future growth are dashed, then, to paraphrase Robert Graves, all of the poisons which lurk in the mud could hatch out.

Stamp Investment Tip: India 1900 China Expeditionary Force Overprint (Scott #M1-10)

As with the other colonial powers smuggling opium into China, bribing corrupt officials, and generally making a mockery of Chinese sovereignty during the 19th and early 20th centuries, Great Britain maintained "spheres of influence" within China, and maintained post offices there and in Hong Kong. This understandably led to some resentment among the Chinese who attempted to forcibly eject the foreign parasites. The abortive Boxer Rebellion (1898-1901) was crushed by the multinational China Expeditionary Force, to which the various colonial powers had contributed personnel. In a truly British combination of efficiency with a sense of humor, Great Britain added Indian units to the C.E.F., thereby setting one colonized and exploited people against another.

In 1900, a set of ten Victoria definitives from India's regular issues of 1882-99 were overprinted for use by the C.E.F. (Scott #M1-10). 13,717 sets were sold, and Scott '12 prices the unused set at $100.70.

The set has potential appeal in three growing markets: collectors of British Commonwealth, India, and China. Many of the best investments in Indian stamps are to be found among the obscure colonial back-of-book items and the Convention States. The Indian stamp market is really just beginning to take off, and is at a stage similar to the Chinese stamp market of 30 years ago.

The set should also do well based upon demand from China, but that may require a change in attitude on the part of Chinese collectors. Many, if not all, of the better foreign offices in China stamps are grossly undervalued, because most Chinese collectors disdain them as relics of foreign imperialism, which they are. Nevertheless, I feel that they are excellent investments solely on the basis of growing demand in their home countries, and because I believe that eventually, the Chinese will bid them up as well. Many of these issues are undervalued to such an extent that they are currently selling for less than P.R.C. souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution sets which are at least 30 to 100 times more common. When reticence begins to replace rage, they will zoom upward at a rate that will shock and amaze the the vast majority of collectors who unwisely neglected to read this blog.

Stamp Investment Tip: Republic of China 1952 Land Tax Reduction (Scott #1046-51)

In 1952, the Republic of China (now known as Taiwan) issued a set celebrating the reduction of the land tax (Scott #1046-51), as well as a special imperforate version of the set (Scott #1046-51Note). 80,000 of the normal, perf. set and 20,000 of the imperf. set were issued, and Scott '12 values them unused at $351.00 and $1,100.- respectively.

Both should do well as the stamp markets in both Chinas continues to develop. Although fewer of the imperforate set were issued, these were generally not used as postage, and it is likely that many of the perf. sets were used as postage and discarded.

Better stamps and souvenir sheets of the R.O.C. have done well over the last few decades, but the market has been cooler than that for stamps of the People's Republic. I believe that as capitalism and incremental democratization take hold in the P.R.C., relations between the "two Chinas" will gradually improve, as will demand for stamps of the R.O.C.. The process of thawing may have already begun: as of 2008, more than $ 150 billion has been invested in the P.R.C. by Taiwanese companies, and about 10% of the Taiwanese labor force works in the P.R.C., often to run their own businesses.

In the meantime, most of the demand for stamps of Taiwan will originate from collectors in Taiwan itself and among overseas Chinese (of which there are approximately 35 million). Taiwan, a nation of 23 million people, is one of the four "Asian Tigers," and has experienced explosive economic growth and industrialization over the last 5 decades. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the last 5 years, but this reflects the zero growth of 2009, a result of the global financial mess.

Stamp Investment Tip: India 1904 China Expeditionary Force Overprint (Scott #M12-20)

As with the other colonial powers smuggling opium into China, bribing corrupt officials, and generally making a mockery of Chinese sovereignty during the 19th and early 20th centuries, Great Britain maintained "spheres of influence" within China, and maintained post offices there and in Hong Kong. This understandably led to some resentment among the Chinese who attempted to forcibly eject the foreign parasites. The Boxer Rebellion (1898-1901) was crushed by the multinational China Expeditionary Force, to which the various colonial powers had contributed personnel. In a truly British combination of efficiency and irony, Great Britain added Indian units to the C.E.F., thereby setting one colonized and exploited people against another.

In 1904, a set of nine Indian stamps from its Edward VII Issue were overprinted for use by the C.E.F. (Scott #M12-20). 5,568 sets were sold, and Scott '12 prices the unused set at $118.00.

The set has potential appeal in three growing markets: collectors of British Commonwealth, India, and China. Many of the best investments in Indian stamps are to be found among the obscure colonial back-of-book items and the Convention States. The Indian stamp market is really just beginning to take off, and is at a stage similar to the Chinese stamp market of 30 years ago.

The set should also do well based upon demand from China, but that may require a change in attitude on the part of Chinese collectors. Many, if not all, of the better foreign offices in China stamps are grossly undervalued, because most Chinese collectors disdain them as relics of foreign imperialism, which they are. Nevertheless, I feel that they are excellent investments solely on the basis of growing demand in their home countries, and because I believe that eventually, the Chinese will bid them up as well. Many of these issues are undervalued to such an extent that they are currently selling for less than P.R.C. souvenir sheets and Cultural Revolution sets which are at least 30 to 100 times more common. When reticence begins to replace rage, they will zoom upward at a rate that will shock and amaze the the vast majority of collectors who unwisely neglected to read this blog.

Stamp Investment Tip: People's Republic of China 1980 Exhibitions Miniature Sheets (Scott #1627Note)

In 1980, the People's Republic of China issued two rather prosaic stamps celebrating the Exhibitions of the P.R.C. held in San Francisco, Chicago, and New York (Scott #1626-27). Miniature sheets of 12 of these two stamps (Scott #1627Note) were sold only at these exhibitions at increasing prices. Only 27,000 sets of the two sheets were sold, and Scott '11 prices the unused set at $500..

Lately, I've hesitated to recommend any issues of the P.R.C. because the stamp market there is so overheated that it's nearly impossible to keep up with it. Attempting to place a value on the '80 Exhibition sheets, one is faced with the dilemna that is so typical of the market for better P.R.C. issues - dealers are currently buy-listing the issue at over twice Scott, and presumably selling it for 30%-60% more.

Does this mean that an investor should try to acquire the sheets for what dealers are paying? Are the sheets a bargain even at full retail, given the prospect that the current retail price might be the new wholesale price in a few months? It's impossible to say, since the Chinese stamp market is like a game of musical chairs, with the music sped up and playing at full blast.

Nevertheless, I think it unwise to bet against the momentum of the Chinese economic miracle, because the major threats to it- war, an epidemic, political upheaval, or a massive environmental catastrophe - seem unlikely to be realized in the near future. The 1980 Exhibition sheets look like a good value when compared to many comparably priced P.R.C. issues with far greater quantities issued, especially if purchased at or near the current buy prices.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are welcome to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and is also an excellent venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.

Stamp Investment Tip: Republic of China 1952 Chiang Kai-shek Return to Presidency, imperforate (Scott #1052-56 Note)

In 1952, the Republic of China (also known as "Taiwan") issued a set of stamps commemorating the second anniversary Chiang Kai-shek's return to the presidency (Scott #1052-56), and also released an imperforate version of the set (Scott #1052-56 Note) for the collector market. 180,000 of the normal sets were issued, along with 20,000 imperforate sets, and Scott '11 prices the unused sets at $180.50 and $ 460.- respectively.


Both versions of the set are worthy of consideration. Although the imperforate set had a much lower quantity issued, none were used as postage and discarded, while I'd estimate that at least 80-90% of the regular set were. I also recommend te 1953 4th Anniversary of Chiang Kai-shek's Return to the Presidency set and its imperforate baby brother (Scott #1064-69 and 1064-69 Note), of which 290,000 were issued, along with 10,000 imperforate sets (Scott Values for unused are $ 289.50 and $ 460.- , respectively). It's interesting to note that the crusty but not always benevolent dictator was considerate enough to repeatedly remind his people to celebrate his glorious return.

Better stamps and souvenir sheets of the R.O.C. have done well over the last few decades, but the market has been cooler than that for stamps of the People's Republic. I believe that as capitalism and incremental democratization take hold in the P.R.C., relations between the "two Chinas" will gradually improve, as will demand for stamps of the R.O.C.. The process of thawing may have already begun: as of 2008, more than $ 150 billion has been invested in the P.R.C. by Taiwanese companies, and about 10% of the Taiwanese labor force works in the P.R.C., often to run their own businesses.

In the meantime, most of the demand for stamps of Taiwan will originate from collectors in Taiwan itself and among overseas Chinese (of which there are approximately 35 million). Taiwan, a nation of 23 million people, is one of the four "Asian Tigers," and has experienced explosive economic growth and industrialization over the last 5 decades. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 4% over the last 5 years, but this reflects the zero growth of 2009, a result of the global financial mess.

General Commentary: The Bull in the China Shop

Recently, a prominent Chinese dealer published an extensive buy list for stamps of the P.R.C., with buy prices which significantly increased the wholesale values of key P.R.C. stamps. The most dramatic increases seem to be for many of the better souvenir sheets and for issues of the Cultural Revolution. The question is: does this represent a pivotal event for the P.R.C. market, and perhaps for the global stamp market as a whole, comparable in its implications for the stamp market to the effect of the failure of Lehman Brothers on the stock market (except, of course, that the new buy prices represent a positive development rather than a negative one)?

It's quite possible that the buy list was simply an attempt to manipulate prices upward, so as to increase the value of a dealer's inventory. But does this even matter? The Chinese stamp market has been hot for a while now, and it would be surprising if price manipulation was not utilized as a catalyst every now and then.

It's also possible that the new buy list is evidence of a bubble.

"The Entire Nation is Red" Design Error (Scott #999A)

To attempt to get a better idea of what is going on in the market for better P.R.C., I've done a little research, comparing buy prices of a few key items over the last 6 years. These quotations are approximate representations of wholesale value, and not by any means comprehensive, in that they do not take into account all P.R.C. buy lists for any given period.

(Prices are for VF NH)


1958 Kuan Han-ching s/s (Scott #357a):


2004: $ 65.00
2006: $ 75.00
2007: $ 85.00
2008: $ 130.00
March, 2010: $ 215.00 ; April, 2010: $ 340.00


1961 Table Tennis s/s (Scott #566a):

2004: $ 180.00
2206: $ 225.00
2007: $ 225.00
2008: $ 275.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April,2010: $ 1,180.00


1962 Mei Lan-fang s/s (Scott #628):

2004: $ 1,800.00
2006: $ 2,500.00
2007: $ 3,000.00
March, 2010: $ 10,000.00; April, 2010: $ 11,000.00

1964 Peonies s/s (Scott #782):

2004: $ 400.00
2006: $ 500.00
2007: $ 500.00
March, 2010: $ 2,000.00; April, 2010: $ 3,650.00

1967 Thoughts of Chairman Mao- unfolded strip of 5 (Scott #948a):

2004: $ 325.00
2006: $ 750.00
2007: $ 750.00
March, 2010: $ 2,500.00; April, 2010: $ 3,300.00


1967-68 Poems by Chairman Mao (Scott #967-80):

2004: $ 475.00
2006: $ 800.00
2007: $ 800.00
2008: $ 1,300.00
March, 2010: $ 2,200.00; April, 2010: $ 3,000.00


1968: "The Entire Nation is Red" (Scott #999A):

2004: $ 8,000.00
2006: $ 10,000.00
2007: $ 10,000.00
March, 2010: $ $ 60,000.00; April, 2010: $ 75,000.00


1978 Science Conference s/s (Scott #1383a):

2004: $ 140.00
2006: $ 150.00
2007: $ 160.00
March, 2010: $ 400.00; April, 2010: $ 490.00

1979 Study Science s/s (Scott #1518):

2004: $ 300.00
2006: $ 510.00
March, 2010: $ 1,600.00; April, 2010: $ 1,950.00

1980 Year of the Monkey (Scott #1586):

2004: $ 100.00
2006: $ 215.00
2007: $ 200.00
March, 2010: $ 800.00; April, 2010: $ 975.00

The gains are astounding, to the extent that they defy analysis. In certain respects, the situation certainly looks like a bubble. As the expression goes: "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck." The only problem is that in this case, we're dealing with Peking Duck, a bionic "superduck" powered by tens of millions of Chinese collectors.

On the one hand, I can not advise buying many of the dramatically revalued items at their new stratospheric levels. On the other, I've been bullish about the Chinese stamp market for decades, and will not bet against it. In the long run, even the items which are currently being hysterically bid upward may turn out to be good investments. My recommendation is to wait until at least some of the dust has cleared, and the shock has at least partly worn off, and then target better items which have not been as hyped, and which haven't experienced such rapid increases in value. They represent safer bets, and their day will come.