General Commentary - the 2013 Curtiss Jenny Error Souvenir Sheet Lottery

  About 3 1/2 years ago, I suggested in a StampSelector article that the financially beleaguered Postal Service might raise funds by instituting a postal lottery, in which lucky collectors could win stamps issued in very limited quantities. Admittedly, the suggestion was not a serious one, because although the the USPS has made many idiotic mistakes in the last five decades, it's never promoted gambling or sunk to the level of a carnival tout. As it happens, it's taken my advice, at least generally, with its recent  issuance of the $12 Inverted Jenny Souvenir Sheets, each of which contains six $2 stamps.

The history of the original error (Scott #C3a) is well known to many U.S. collectors. In 1918, in a rush to celebrate the first airmail flight, the Post Office Department issued the 24 cent Curtiss Jenny stamp. Because the design required two colors, sheets were placed on the printing press twice - first to apply red ink and a second time to apply blue ink. This process was prone to human error, as it allowed for the possibility that sheets might be inserted upside down, resulting in inverted center error stamps. A Washington, D.C. post office clerk who had never seen an airplane sold a sheet of 100 stamps mistakenly showing the biplane upside down to collector William T. Robey. Robey sold the legendary sheet of “Inverted Jennies” for $15,000 to dealer Eugene Klein, who then sold it to famed collector Colonel E.H.R. Green for $20,000. Colonel Green broke  up the sheet and sold most of it over the years, keeping select examples, including one which he encased in a locket which he gave to his wife, Mabel. When offered, these stamps now sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars (up to $1 million, depending upon condition).

Normal s/s

The USPS recently issued 2.2 million of the $12 Inverted Jenny souvenir sheets, but this figure also includes 100 sheets with the biplane rightside-up -  intentional "design errors" which correct the original design error of 1918. Actually, it is probably more accurate to call these items varieties. The sheets are being sold in shrink-wrapped packages, thereby rendering it impossible for buyers to see the design of each sheet.  In effect, the USPS has instituted a lottery, motivating collectors to buy quantities of the $12 souvenir sheets in hopes of finding those with valuable "biplane rightside-up" varieties.

The intentional issuance of an inverted center errors is not unprecedented. There are a number of developing countries (most notably Liberia) for which such errors are relatively common. In many cases such stamps were created by corrupt postal officials hoping to profit from sales to collectors.The editors of the Scott Catalog  have stated that the new variety will not receive a major or minor Scott catalog number, though it will be described in a footnote accompanying the souvenir sheet's listing. As an intentionally created scarce variety, it violates Clause 6 of Scott's listing policy.

Variety ("Error") s/s

Each purchase of one of the $12 sheets basically gives the buyer about a 1 in 22,000 chance of purchasing a variety sheet. For those collectors, speculators, and dealers who might wish to enter this USPS lottery by buying large quantities of the sheets in hopes of acquiring the varieties, the key question to consider is whether the (currently unknown) market value of a variety sheet will more offset the probable loss incurred when unloading all of the normal ones.

A prudent stamp dealer or speculator would consider the following before playing this game: 22,000 sheets will cost him $264,000.- (plus labor and expenses) and will probably yield him at least one variety sheet. Unless he does mass mailings, he will have to sell most of the rest of the sheets as discount postage, for around 70% - 75% of face value ($184,800 to $198,000.-, if all are sold at a discount). In other words, in order for this individual to break even on his gamble, he will have to be able to sell his Rightside-up variety sheet for at least $66,000.- (or $79,200-. if he unloaded the discount postage for 70%).  Not bloody likely, in my opinion.

Attempting to predict the probable long-term market value for such an item is an endeavor fraught with difficulty (and peril if one gambles on one's guess). The quantities issued are the same for both the original 1918 Inverted Centers and the 2013 "Biplane Rightside-up" variety souvenir sheets  - 100 of each exist. Much of the demand for the original Inverted Jenny stamps is based on their fame rather than scarcity - there are many stamps for which fewer than 100 examples exist (including inverted center errors) which sell for far less than C3a. In fact, there are many such stamps which sell for 1% or less of what a nice C3a will realize at auction. As for the variety souvenir sheets: based upon the values of comparably scarce legitimate U.S. errors, one might reasonably estimate that they will sell for a few thousand dollars each once the hype dies down. However, there are times when reason has little to do with the stamp market.

Those interested in becoming part of an international community of stamp collectors, dealers, and investors are encouraged to join the "Stampselectors" group at Facebook. The group hosts lively discussions concerning stamp investment and practical aspects of collecting, and provides a useful venue for those who wish to buy, sell, or trade stamps.   

Phila-Trivia: 1905 Article on Somali Coast Inverts

This exposé was translated from L’Echo de la Timbrologie and published in the American Journal of Philately (New York) for February 1905. It is interesting and relevant because it points out that errors are not always rare or legitimately issued.

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The Truth about the Stamps of the Somali Coast with Inverted Centers
From being very rare, the Somali Coast stamps with inverted centers have become common, and let us see who will throw a stone at them; since the law has busied itself with these stamps no one wishes to see or possess them! Their too-rapid appearance was the despair of collectors and certain among them talked of giving up collecting! In truth there has been much talk about these stamps, everybody has seen thousands of them and, finally, no one has them.

I think that it is right to inform amateurs what has been done and what these stamps are.

The postage stamps of the French Colonies are sold in Paris, at the Agency of the Colonies, 6 rue du Mont-Thabor. There a commission is charged with receiving them, verifying them and destroying the defective ones and the errors. Now, from the establishment of the Agency until 1904, this commission amounted to nothing; the stamps often reached them at two o’clock and the commission closed its session above five o’clock. It is easily understood that all errors would escape their scrutiny, as they could not verify 60,000 sheets in three hours.

It is thus that the following errors have appeared:

0.75 Indo China, inverted center

0.01 Martinique, name in blue

0.02 Congo, red, etc.

The dealers who obtained their supplies at the rue du Mont-Thabor did not hesitate to ask M. Evrard, an employee, if he did not find errors. He set himself to look for them and gave them out freely; I will point out these:

0.05 Djibouti, green and yellow-green, inverted center

1fr Congo, inverted center

0.01 Congo inverted center

But M. Evrard at that time received practically nothing for his trouble; he quickly ascertained that the said stamps were sold for 20 francs, indeed for 200 francs, apiece and, instead of giving up the errors he put them aside and kept them.

In May 1903, M. Evrard proposed to me to sell me these inverted centers; he showed me what he had found up to that time:

1 sheet of 100 stamps of 0.04

2 sheets of 100 stamps of 0.20

15 sheets of 100 stamps of 0.25

3 sheets of 100 of 0.30

He asked me for my estimate and I replied to him that I estimated the lot to be worth something like ten thousand francs. Upon his proposition that I should take them at that price I agreed, then I sold them, sometime after, to M. Dorsan Astruc.
But in proportion as the new deliveries were made at the rue du Mont-Thabor, M. Evrard found new errors and below is the exact list of all the values which came from the rue du Mont-Thabor:

	Colored Center	Black Center
0.01	--	100 examples
0.04	100 examples	--
0.05	700	1500
0.20	200	500
0.15	1900	200
0.30	--	300 (1st printing)
0.50	--	600
0.75	--	500
1fr.	--	24

All stamps really purchased at the rue du Mont-Thabor as proved by the receipts presented by M. Evrard. (Since 1904 we see no more errors coming from the rue du Mont-Thabor. This is because the active members of the commission on verification are taking their duties seriously, throwing out all errors from the deliveries as made to them and carefully destroying them.)
In 1904 we have seen inverted centers of the Somali Coast come from everywhere. Where do they come from? An inquiry has actually been started. M. Le Poitevin being entrusted with the investigation.

An order of arrest is issued against the principal culprit; a workingman is already locked up! Because, if these stamps do not come from a theft, properly speaking, they come from a clandestine printing executed at night in the workrooms of the printer, which should be called a theft.

The values printed are the following:

With colored center 0.04; 0.40; 0.50; 1fr; 2fr and 5fr

With black center 0.40; 0.50; 2fr and 5fr

And more than all this, the following freaks have appeared:

1st. The frame of the 0.25 blue with the central mosque in blue

2nd. The 0.40 with black ground having the central design of a camel turned to the right instead of to the left.

I shall not take upon myself the role of the investigating judge; I sincerely hope that these elusive and clandestine impressions, which equally concern certain values with proper centers, certain values of Madagascar and Congo, all good for postage, I sincerely hope, I say, that this way of doing things will cease. The collectors are not the only ones who suffer by it, but, what is worse, the budgets of our Colonies also.

But I wish to show collectors that there is a difference between these clandestinely printed stamps and the stamps coming from Evrard.

In the first place the values are not the same, excepting the 0.40 and 0.50.

Then the colors of these two stamps are not the same, notably the rose, which is too bright, almost always the color of the frame runs and the paper is tinted by it.

Finally the paper of the clandestinely printed stamps is very much thicker, which is easily recognized by the touch, but it becomes evident when one separates two stamps. The Evrard stamps come apart evenly like all stamps coming from the Colonial Agency; the stolen stamps are upon a paper which is almost cardboard.

I will add that the paper of the two printings comes from the same house, Blanchet & Kléber, and bears the same marks. The persons who have executed these clandestine printings have, indeed, bought the paper from the same house, but they did not take it of the same weight.

To sum up, and I am not alone in my opinion, the Evrard stamps are good, recognized as having come from the rue du Mont-Thabor by the judge charged with the investigation; they are worthy, according to this decision, of figuring the catalogues and certain varieties are very rare.

The stolen stamps are not worth much, and, a capital thing, it is extremely easy to distinguish the two printings; one is a stamp, the other is comparable to the fraudulently perforated essays upon cardboard.

Dr.H. Voison

* * *

So this is the truth? Well, there is an old adage that “murder will out” and its terse probity is certainly well illustrated in this case!

To start with we are shown a commission, who were appointed for the express purpose of doing certain things, whose members are, or have been, so lax in performing the special duties entrusted to them that one of the principal causes of its creation has been completely nullified and rendered inoperative, for, as Dr. Voisin says, it would be a physical impossibility for them to count, let alone examine, twenty thousand sheets of stamps an hour, for this would mean an average of a little over five and one-half sheets per second.

We are not told whether the errors which are said to be due to this criminal carelessness made their appearance from the various colonies for which the stamps were printed or directly from the Colonial Agency in Paris, but we are strongly inclined to the belief that the errors in question never saw the colonies whose names they bear. The pernicious habit of selling any and all colonial stamps in Paris has many sins to answer for and, though we freely admit that these stamps would have been perfectly good for postage had they ever reached the colonies wherein they were valid, we greatly doubt that they ever were used in that way, although, so far as these three cases are concerned, there is, at least, a possibility that some of them may have reached the colonies in question.
We now come to the statement that “dealers who obtained their supplies at the rue du Mont-Thabor did not hesitate to ask M. Evrard, an employee, if he did not find errors,” etc. What, may we ask, is the name which Frenchmen would apply to transactions of this kind? Here in the United States the most lenient term which would be used would be bribery on the part of the dealers in question, and malfeasance in office on the part of M. Evrard. The fact that the latter gentleman found out early in the game that he was not receiving his full share of the profits accruing from the sale of his stolen goods is of no consequence in considering the ethics of the case.

He was a government official whose special duty it was, after duly verifying the account of the number of sheets of stamp delivered to the Agency, to destroy all spoiled sheets and all errors of whatsoever kind. Instead of doing this he carefully laid aside all errors which he found and sold them at enhanced prices for his individual account.

The ingenuousness of Dr. Voisin’s description of his own part in the disposition of the twenty-one sheets with inverted centers is so apparent as to make its truth unquestionable. M. Evrard, having become tired of acting as the cat’s paw for the more avaricious dealers who first approached him, simply reversed things, himself played the part of the monkey and induced the worthy doctor to become the cat whose paws were to pull the chestnuts (francs, in this case) from the fire for his delectation.

Finally we are given a list of 6,624 of these stamps with inverted centers which came from the Colonial Agency but the doctor is silent as whether or not he was the accomplice in marketing the extra 4,524 stamps over and above the twenty-one sheets already spoken of. It is, however, plain that none of these 6,624 stamps ever reached the Somali Coast; therefore the case is of a very similar nature to that of our own four-cent value of the series of 1901, which stamp has already been expunged from our catalogue upon the ground that, although it was a bona-fide error, it never was on sale at any post office.

Now, our conspirators are suddenly startled out of their tranquil dreams of ever-increasing wealth and worldly prosperity by the appearance upon the market of a flood of these self-same errors for which they cannot account. Prices fall rapidly; their castles in Spain totter upon their foundations; something must be done. Then an official investigation is instituted, whether at the instance of the conspirators themselves or through the fact of so many errors (?) being upon the market reaching the ears of the officials we know not, but, at all, events, the results are attained, for, we are told, “Since 1904 we see no more errors coming from the rue du Mont-Thabor,” and that the commissioners “are taking their duties seriously, throwing out all errors from the deliveries as made to them and carefully destroying them.” Thus is the source of supply closed to the arch conspirator, M. Evrard.

We are then told that “an order of arrest is issued against the principal culprit;” we are left in ignorance as to the name of this unfortunate individual but, if justice has been done, we think that we might safely hazard a guess that his name began with the fifth letter of the alphabet. “A working man has been locked up!” Yes, probably upon the principle of Justice which says that a man who steals a loaf of bread for his starving family is a thief while the “man higher up” who robs the government or some large institution of hundreds of thousands, or millions, of dollars is an exponent of high financiering - a smart, able man. But, of course, something had to be done and someone must be made the scapegoat!

We must confess to being unable to understand certain fine distinctions which are drawn by the worthy doctor. For instance, if the “secret printing executed at night in the workrooms of the printer” is theft, and we do not dispute this point for a moment, what shall we call the method employed by Mr. Evrard in obtaining his stock of the same stamps?

It is doubtless true that the secret printings can be easily recognized from those emanating from the Colonial Agency, but we cannot see how this fact improves the standing of the latter class. Neither were ever really issued for use and if the Colonial budgets suffered by reason of the secret printings they were most certainly not swollen to plethoric proportions by the stolen, but regularly printed, stamps.

It is not until we reach the final paragraph of the doctor’s “True story” that the real reason for its being is brought to light. In speaking of the Colonial Agency stamps, he says: “the Evrard stamps are good, recognized as having come from the rue du Mont-Thabor by the judge charged with the investigation, they are worthy, according to this decision, of figuring in the catalogues and certain varieties are very rare. The stolen stamps are not worth much.”

Interesting and ingenious logic, is it not? My stamps, although stolen and never issued are good! The other fellow’s, stolen also, are no good. In other words: the fact that I bought stamps, knowing them to be stolen and that they never were issued, is not reason why I should not be protected and allowed to reap my expected profits from them, because they were stolen by an official. But the poor workman, who adopted what was probably the only way in which he could follow the official’s lead, is to be imprisoned and not allowed to realize upon his stamps.

So far as any opinion rendered by the investigating judge is concerned, we fail to see how it can in any way affect the status of the stamps in question. Of course he recognized that the stamps came from the Colonial Agency; if he had before him one-half the evidence that is presented in the paper under consideration, he could do nothing else. That, however, is not the question; we freely admit that fact to be true. The real point at issue so far as philatelists are concerned, is: Were these stamps ever regularly issued through the post offices of the Colony? To this we answer most emphatically: No.

This fact having been fully established there remains but one course for cataloguers to pursue, and that is to completely ignore their existence.

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Stamp Investment Tip: U.S. 1979 15c John Paul Jones, Perf 12 variety (Scott #1789B)

There are times when album or catalog publishers can significantly influence the stamp market, by virtue of a "tail wagging the dog" effect. Such is the case with a stamp which might have been considered a boring perforation variety, had they not stepped in and given the story a new spin.

In 1979, the U.S. issued a 15c stamp honoring John Paul Jones, the naval hero of the American Revolution. Two common perforation types of this stamp exist, perf. 11x12 and perf. 11 (Scott #1789 and 1789A). However, there also exists a scarce perf. 12 variety of this stamp (Scott #1789B). Scott '12 prices #1789B at $3,500.00, and fewer than 200 are believed to exist.

In most cases, modern imperforate and color-missing errors are listed as varieties of the basic stamps. Often, they are quite scarce, with fewer than 100 to a few hundred known, and these errors are far more visually striking than a perf variety, but for the most part, they are significantly less expensive than the John Paul Jones Perf. 12. The reason for this discrepancy involves a decision by album publishers.

Several popular albums include a space for #1789B, as if it were a completely different stamp, rather than just a variety. Consequently, a stamp collector purchasing one of these albums must endure the philatelic equivalent of Purgatory, staring at an empty space that demands to be filled.

As long as some album publishers continue to classify #1789B in this manner, it will increase in value for years to come. At the very least, it makes sense to get out the old perf gauge if one comes across a motley group of 15c John Paul Jones stamps.

Note that #1789B should be published conditional on obtaining expertization. Relatively inexpensive imperforate printer's waste exists for this issue, and there is the risk that someone may try to reperforate some of it, to produce bogus Perf. 12s.

Thanks to Bob Dumaine of Sam Houston Philatelics for providing much of the information used in this article.

Stamp Investment Tip: Guatemala Inverted Quetzal Errors (Scott #22a, 23a, 25a)

In 1881, Guatemala issued an attractive set of stamps picturing its national bird, the Quetzal (Scott #21-25). Each stamp was printed in two colors, and as occasionally happens during the printing of multi-colored stamps, a few sheets went through the printing press upside-down, producing invert errors of the 2, 5, and 20 centavos denominations (Scott #22a, 23a, 25a). Quantities issued are not known, but in all probability, the stamps are extremely scarce to rare, with quantities remaining ranging from about 20-50 for #23a to a few hundred for each of #s 22a and 25a. For unused examples, Scott '11 values #22a at $400.-, #23a at $3,000.-, and #25a at $500.-.

Aside from the fact that I favor all undervalued issues of Latin America, the Quetzal Inverts also appeal to both the most affluent of Bird Topical collectors, and to Error collectors. The scarcest of the three (#23a) is rarer than an Inverted Jenny, the most famous American invert, yet may be had for less than 1% of the cost of its snobby cousin up north.

With a population of about 14 million, Guatemala is a poor but developing country. Since the end of the Civil War in 1996, the country has witnessed a successful transition from authoritarian dictatorship to democracy, although major inequities in income still need to be addressed. In recent years the export sector has grown dynamically. Some of Guatemala's main products include fruits, vegetables, flowers, handicrafts, and textiles. The 1996 peace accords that ended the decades-long Civil War removed a major obstacle to foreign investment, and tourism has become an increasing source of revenue. Annual GDP growth has averaged just under 5% over the last 5 years.

I have begun a new blog, "The Stamp Specialist", featuring my buy lists for stamps which I wish to purchase, including some sets from Guatemala. I have not buy-listed the Inverted Quetzals, but would be happy to purchase any offered at reasonable prices and with certificates. Periodically viewing dealers' buy lists is an excellent way to remained informed about the state of the stamp market.

Those interested in joining a community of stamp investors are welcome to join the "StampSelectors" group on Facebook. The group provides a valuable forum for those who wish discuss this blog, as well as trade or communicate with stamp collectors, dealers, and investors from all over the world.

Stamp Investment Tip: Mexico 1934-35 20c Slate Color Error (Scott #C62a)

In 1934-35, Mexico issued a rather unremarkable set of three stamps reprising the Coat of Arms/Biplane design of 1929-34 (Scott #C62-64). The set would be of little interest to investors, were it not for a color error, the 20c Slate (Scott #C62a), of which only 180 were issued. The normal 20c Olive Green (Scott #C62), is extremely common (Scott 2010 as unused = 35c), but Scott '10 values the error at $ 500.- (both unused and used).

Taking into account the risks of mistaking a gray shade of the common olive green stamp for the slate error, or of purchasing a chemically induced color changeling, this stamp should be purchased conditional on obtaining expertization, optimally from M.E.P.S.I..

Given that caveat, however, the error is grossly undervalued, but will not remain so. It is priced at about 1/1,000th the value of an Inverted Jenny (U.S. Sc. #C3a), but is about half as rare (assuming that all of the 180 error stamps issued still exist). As the Inverted Jenny is one of the most famous errors in the world, however, perhaps this is not a fair comparison. The 20c Slate Color Error had a slightly lower printing than the U.S. 1893 4c Columbian Blue Color Error (Scott #233a), yet cats. at about 1/40th of the Columbian's value. To give some perspective on this, imagine a fantastical worst-case scenario, in which all 180 of C62a were to come on the market at once. They would probably be purchased for somewhat less than their full Scott value of
$ 90,000 ($ 500.- X 180) - less than a minor Mexican drug cartel makes on a slow day. The ludicrously low current valuation for this rarity is unsustainable.

With a population of about 109 million, Mexico has experienced consistent annual GDP growth of between 3 and 5%. It has a diverse and developing economy, but modernization remains a slow and uneven process, and current challenges include addressing income inequality and corruption, upgrading the infrastructure, and reforming tax and labor laws. Stamps of Mexico are popular among collectors in the U.S. as well as in Mexico, and those who wish to learn more about Mexican stamps should consider joining the Mexico Elmhurst Philatelic Society International (M.E.P.S.I.). MEPSI provides many useful services for collectors of Mexico, including expertizing Mexican stamps.