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Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Practical Advice - Common Mistakes to Avoid When Building a Stamp Collection




As a stamp dealer living in the Washington, DC area, I am frequently approached by collectors and their heirs who request that I evaluate their collections. Often, I run into collections that aren't worth very much, and have to inform the owner that he probably has a beginner's collection, and that "its sentimental value is greater than its market value." This is usually disappointing to the owner, who is sometimes baffled because he believes that the collection should be worth more, as many years of work were devoted to building it.


Stamp Collecting is not only enjoyable and educational, but offers the opportunity to build a collection which is also a valuable asset, if done properly. The main difference between a beginning stamp collector, who is usually unfamiliar with the financial side of philately, and a stampselector, is that many beginning and even intermediate collectors make fundamental mistakes when pursuing their hobby, from a financial perspective. Some of the most common mistakes are described below:

1) Buying sheets of stamps or commemorative year sets from the Postal Service- the overwhelming majority of stamps issued by the U.S.P.S. do not increase in value, except over very, very long periods of time. Most mint U.S. postage stamps issued since 1940 are considered "discount postage," and stamp dealers commonly buy these issues for 60%-80% of face value. Perhaps in another 50 years or so, as more of these stamps are used up as postage, some of them will begin to inch up in value.



2) Confusing catalog value with market value - this is a general problem in the sense that there is no substitute for familiarity with the stamp market, and that stamps of different countries or collecting areas sell for different percentages of catalog value. The most dramatic misinterpretation of catalog value, however, occurs when a beginning collector buys "packets," envelopes of cheap stamps from a dealer, and then assumes that the catalog value has some validity when it comes to evaluating these stamps. Scott assigns a "minimum catalog value" of 25c to any stamp, in order to take into account a dealer's labor in writing it up and presenting it. However, the most inexpensive, virtually worthless stamps are sold by the pound, sometimes for as little as 1/20c per stamp. Theoretically, 100,000 stamps may have a minimum Scott value of $25,000, but in reality, they may be worth only about $ 100, or less.


3) Buying commercially produced stamp, First Day Cover, or event cover collections from so-called "collector's societies"- a number of corporations fleece beginning collectors by persuading them to subscribe to these items, touting their beauty and investment potential. When the original subscriber attempts to re-sell his "heirloom collection," he invariably learns that the collection is only worth about 4% of what he paid for it.


4) Buying too many different inexpensive stamps - one of the fundamental differences between collectors and philatelic investors is that collectors usually want to fill spaces in their albums, while investors want to purchase items which increase in value and then may be easily re-sold. Often, collectors buy many different inexpensive stamps or sets of stamps, and then later find that it is very time-consuming to organize them for re-sale and that few buyers want to purchase them. This is not the same as an investor purchasing a large quantity of a single inexpensive item, because an inexpensive item, in quantity, constitutes a single lot which may be conveniently re-sold. It is much easier to sell a single thousand dollar stamp, or fifty of the same twenty dollar stamp, than it is to sell fifty different twenty dollar stamps. A stampselector should take into account the time and effort that will be involved in re-selling his stamps, both by himself and by prospective buyers, because this "convenience factor" will be an important determinant of their value.



5) Neglecting to preserve the collection- condition is a crucial factor in stamp valuation. Having evaluated many collections for which the value was tragically decimated due to improper handling or storage, I strongly recommend that all collectors learn about stamp preservation. Readers may wish to take a look at my article on the subject, "Practical Advice: Preserving Your Stamps",which appeared earlier in this blog.



There is nothing wrong with treating stamp collecting purely as a hobby, pursued solely for pleasure and with no expectation of financial reward. However, should a collector also consider himself a philatelic investor and desire that his collection increase in value as an asset, he must take into account the factors which will affect its eventual sale. The hobby and the business are related, but they are not the same.








Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Hong Kong 1948 Silver Wedding (Scott #178-79)

In 1948, Hong Kong issued a set of two stamps celebrating the Silver Wedding Anniversary of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (Scott #178-79). 54,252 sets were issued and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 300.-.

The stamps of Hong Kong are in demand in Hong Kong, China and among British Commonwealth collectors. This set is of particular interest because it is part of the popular Silver Wedding Omnibus set, comprising stamps issued by the various British Commonwealth countries to commemorate the event.

Hong Kong is now a special administrative district of P.R. China, but it has a high degree of autonomy except in the areas of foreign affairs and defence. With about 7 million people, this Asian Tiger remains a global metropolis and international finance center. The Hong Kong economy experienced negative annual GDP growth in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis, but should recover over the next year or two and return to its usual 5%-7%.

As a modern issue, the set is readily available in VF NH condition, and sometimes is even offered in blocks or multiples. I recommend targeting it for accumulation.


Monday, February 1, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: El Salvador 1935 Central American Games Issue (Scott #538-42/C36-40)

In 1935, El Salvador issued a compound set honoring the Third Central American Games (Scott #538-42/C36-40). Only 6,748 of this attractive Sports topical set were issued, and Scott '10 values it unused at $74.50.

Over the last decade or so, a "stealth bull market" has developed for better Latin American material, especially for scarce issues with wide topical appeal. Supplies have been gradually depleted, and many items which formerly retailed for about 20%-30% of Scott are now selling for 60%-80%, and the catalog values have substantially increased as well. Frequently, Michel Values, which are usually much higher than Scott for Latin America, are used by auction houses when listing this material. As the region has cast aside its authoritarian dictatorships and become more democratic, it has experienced healthy economic growth and the concurrent development of a middle class.

El Salvador, a nation of 5.7 million, is a poor though steadily developing economy, which has experienced annual GDP growth averaging 3.5% over the last 5 years. In addition, there are between 500,000 and 1 million Salvadorans in the U.S., most of whom immigrated during El Salvador's "Dirty War" of 1979-92. Salvadorans in the United States are among the hardest-working immigrants, working enough hours at low-paying jobs to send about $800 million home every year. Although Salvadoran Americans toil in the lowest-paying sectors of the American economy, they are slowly but inexorably becoming more prosperous. They work long hours, save a great deal, and are gradually moving from the inner cities to the suburbs.

While I believe it may take a while for a significant stamp collecting population to develop among Salvadorans, this is mitigated by the fact that many collectors of Latin American stamps collect the region generally, rather than specializing in a particular country. Also, the quantity issued for this Central American Games set was so low that growth in Sports Topical collecting alone may be sufficient to push it upward.


Sunday, January 31, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Bahrain 1948-49 Surcharge (Scott #52-61A)


In 1948 and '49, the Kingdom of Bahrain, then a British-protected territory, surcharged a portion of Great Britain's George VI definitives of the time, issuing a set of eleven stamps (Scott #52-61A). Only 16,460 sets were issued, making it perhaps the scarcest set ever issued by Bahrain. Scott '10 values the unused set at $ 83.00 ($110.- for NH).

I favor all of the better stamps of the affluent Gulf States, and this set has the added attraction of appealing to British Commonwealth collectors.


Bahrain, a country of just under 800,000, has the fastest growing economy in the Arab world. With oil reserves estimated at 150-200 million barrels, Bahrain is not as oil-rich as some of the other Gulf States, but has met the challenge by successfully diversifying into banking and financial services, and is now considered a major financial center. Annual GDP growth has averaged 6.5% over the past 5 years. Bahrain is also developing its natural gas industry, as it has gas reserves equivalent to about another 580 million barrels of oil.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Philippines Stamp Exhibition Issues

The Philippines issued several sets and souvenir sheets at stamp exhibitions in the 1970s and '80s, and I am particularly interested in the three issues which featured "Stamps on Stamps" - AUSIPEX '84, and AMPHILEX '77 and ESPAMER '77 (both airmails). These popular topicals pictured the first issues of the Philippines, Australia, the Netherlands, and Spain and had low printings (especially the imperforate versions of the sheets, which are noted in Scott).


As a newly democratic and newly industrialized country of 92 million which is transitioning from its centuries-old complete dependence on agriculture, the Philippines may turn out to be one of the most successful emerging markets in the Pacific Region. The government tends toward fiscal conservatism coupled with long-term economic planning, and annual GDP growth has been around 6%-7%.

Given their scarcity, inexpensiveness, and topical appeal, I believe that these issues represent low-risk/high reward investments which should do well as this emerging market economy develops. Their quantities issued and Scott '10 Catalog Values are listed below:

AUSIPEX '84:

Set: Sc. #1709-09 (20,000 issued); Sc. '10 CV=$ 7.00
S/S: Sc. #1710 (15,000 issued); Sc. '10 CV=$ 30.00
Imperf. s/s: Sc. #1710Note (10,000 issued); No CV given by Scott

AMPHILEX '77:

S/S: Sc. #C109 (30,000 issued); Sc. '10 CV=$ 10.00
Imperf. s/s: Sc. #C109Note (7,000 issued); Sc. '10 CV=$ 20.00

ESPAMER '77:

S/S: Sc. #C110 (20,000 issued); Sc. '10 CV=$ 10.00
Imperf. s/s: Sc.#C110Note (7,000 issued); Sc. '10 CV=$ 18.00

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Romania 1956 Insect Pests (Scott # 1103-06)


In 1956, Romania issued a set of stamps honoring its campaign against insect pests (Scott #1103-06). 40,000 of this interesting Animal/Insect topical set were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 36.25.

This set should do well as both an Animal topical and as a bet on the growth of Romania's economy. I favor many of the scarce sets of the former Eastern bloc countries (and especially popular topicals), as their values have plenty of room for increase as these economies play catch-up and develop within the free-market fold.

A nation of 22 million people with a GDP per capita of $ 12,285.- (about 46% of the EU average), Romania is considered an upper-middle income country. Romania's main exports are clothing and textiles, industrial machinery, electrical and electronic equipment, metallurgic products, raw materials, cars, military equipment, software, pharmaceuticals, fine chemicals, and agricultural products. GDP growth has been high, averaging about 7% over the last five years.


Friday, January 22, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips- Australia 1946-47 Military Stamps (Scott #M1-7)


In 1946-47, Australia issued a set of stamps for its military forces occupying Japan (Scott #M1-7), by overprinting seven values of its 1937-46 Issue for use by the British Commonwealth Occupation Force. Only 32,508 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 185.- .

This set is interesting from an investment perspective, because it appeals to collectors of Australia, British Commonwealth, and also possibly Japan. Unfortunately, forged "B.C.O.F." overprints of the two high values exist, presenting an expertization cost problem, which may be coped with in one of four ways.


1 - Buy blocks of 4 or more of either the complete set or the 5sh high value (Sc. #M7), and get the block of M7 expertized.


2- Buy a block of the 1p Brown Violet with blue overprint (Scott #M2a- Scott '10 CV = $100.- , and $ 125.- for NH) and get it expertized. The quantity issued for this variety is unknown,but was probably in the low ten thousands.


3- Buy the 3p Dark Violet Brown with double overprint (Scott M3a- Scott '10 CV = $ 750.-) and get it expertized. The quantity issued for this overprint error is unknown, but was probably in the low thousands.


4- As covers which contain complete used sets exist, purchase one of these if you can find one in nice condition, and get it expertized.


I favor better stamps of Australia, as it is a prosperous nation of 22 million people and a diverse economy, with thriving service, agricultural, and mining sectors. Annual GDP growth has average 3.6% over the past 15 years. Recently, there has been considerable growth in mining and petroleum extraction, in part due to increased exports to the resource-hungry Chinese market. It is likely that Australia's stamp collecting population will grow significantly as the nation ages. The percentage of Australians over 60 is projected to rise from 16% in 2000 to 24.8% in 2025, and 28.2% in 2050.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Italy-Offices in China



Like many of the other colonial powers of the time, Italy maintained spheres of influence in China (in Peking and Tientsin), and issued stamps for its offices in China from 1917 through 1921. All of Italy's Offices in China stamps cataloguing $20 and higher are scarce to extremely rare, and are possibly the most undervalued of all of the Offices in China stamps issued by the various countries. Quantities issued are not known, but I would estimate that those stamps presently cataloging $20 or more were probably issued in quantities of under 100 for the rarest to the low thousands for the most common.

These stamps have been largely overlooked for several reasons. Firstly, fake overprints exist for many of the higher values, making expertization necessary, and therefore rendering purchase of the lesser stamps as investments impractical, due to the cost of expertization. Secondly, because of their scarcity, these stamps are rarely offered, and they are often poorly centered or in inferior condition when they are. Thirdly, like other Offices in China stamps, they have been spurned by the Chinese market, because many Chinese view them as shameful relics of imperialistic subjugation.


Nevertheless, I feel that time is on the investor's side when it comes to better Offices in China stamps, because of rising demand among collectors in their home countries, and because I believe that eventually these stamps will be viewed within China as important artifacts of a tragic period of foreign encroachment, which the Chinese people survived and overcame.


Thursday, January 14, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Russia 1935 Moscow-San Francisco Flight Surcharge (Scott #C68)

In 1935, Russia issued a stamp for it first flight from Moscow to San Francisco (Scott #C68) by applying a 1r sucharge to its earlier 10k S. A. Levanesky stamp. Only 10,000 were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused stamp at $ 1,250.00 ($ 3,250.00 for NH). The stamp has appeal to Aviation topicalists as well as collectors of Russia.

The market for better Russian stamps from the Czarist through Stalin periods is very hot right now. With 142 million people, Russia is the 8th or 9th largest economy in the world, with vast reserves of natural resources and a highly educated population. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has experienced several major economic crises in its transition to capitalism, although annual GDP growth has been strong over the last 5 years, at around 7%. The country is still plagued by corruption and organized crime, making it somewhat reminiscent of America during its "Wild West" and Robber-Baron periods. Nevertheless, the middle class has grown from just 8 million people in 2000 to 55 million in 2006.

I favor all better items of Russia, as I believe it likely that both its economy and stamp collecting population will grow substantially over the next decades.

Note that counterfeit overprints exist for this issue, so expertization is strongly advised.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Stamp Investment Tip: Albania 1964 P.R.C. 15th Anniversary (Scott #765-66)

In 1964, Albania issued a set of stamps commemorating the 15th Anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China (Scott #765-66). Only 12,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 22.00.


Better stamps of the P.R.C. have dramatically risen over the last decade, and will continue to do so as China progresses economically. It is inevitable that other countries' scarce issues with topics related to the People's Republic, especially those honoring Chairman Mao, will zoom upward when they attract the attention of China's tens of millions of collectors.

The market for Albanian stamps per se is a minor factor in this case, but worthy of consideration, nevertheless. A nation of 3.2 million people, Albania is poor by Western European standards, but has experienced healthy GDP growth, averaging 6% over the last 5 years. Foreign investment has increased but has been dampened somewhat by the country's inadequate infrastructure. Modernization will be Albania's main challenge over the next decade.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Phila-Trivia: Hyperinflation and Stamps


It may irritating to discover that the prices of many goods at the supermarket have doubled over the last few years, but it doesn't compare to the desperation experienced during periods of hyperinflation, when currency could be rendered virtually worthless in a matter of days or weeks.

The most famous incident of hyperinflation during the stamp-issuing era was in Germany in the early 1920s. A memorable image of this period is a photograph of a man pushing a wheelbarrow full of paper money through the streets to buy a loaf of bread. Regular German postal stamps issued just prior to 1922 ranged from a couple of pfennig to no more than 20 mark. In 1922, values went up a bit, with one series ranging from 100 to 500 mark, but it was 1923 when things really started to go south (or rather north). The pfennig gave way to the mark, which soon gave way to the tausend mark. The inability to keep up with inflation by printing new, higher denominated stamp series required that older issues be hastily surcharged with denominations in the thousands to millions.

German 1923 10 milliarden (10 billion) Mark stamp


German postal hyperinflation reached a crescendo with two stamps (Scott #299 and #305) both denominated at 50 milliarde (50 billion) mark. These were, of course, the highest denominated stamps in their respective series, used for mailing packages and the like (at least until inflation overtook their value). However, the lowest denominations in those series were still an impressive 500,000 and 10 million, respectively.

Even worse than the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation was what Hungary experienced in 1946, when the highest denominated stamp (#774) was a dove and letter design with a printed value of 500,000 billio-pengő -- that's 500 quadrillion pengő! (A few years earlier, a comparable, high-end stamp would have cost only 80 fillér, which was less than 1 pengő.) The cheapest stamp in that series was 1 trillion pengő -- convenient for sending a postcard to Aunty Yllona! (Note that the Hungarian billio is in the traditional long scale, so it is equal to a modern trillion. They also printed three stamps, #757-759, in milliards, or modern billions, before inflation made even that unit impractical.)

Hyperinflation is especially interesting to philatelists, because due to the rapid devaluations of the period, some stamps were only in use for a very short time, and are now worth far more used than unused. Of course, fraudulent cancellations abound.






Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Ryukyus 1958 30y Light Olive Green Variety (Scott #24a)


The Ryukyus Islands were occupied by U.S. forces in 1945, and reverted to Japan in 1972. During the period of occupation, the U.S. issued stamps for use in the Ryukyus, which now are sought by U.S. and Japanese collectors.

In 1953, the Ryukyus issued a 30y Olive Green stamp picturing the Sonchan Utaki Altar at Shuri Castle (Scott #24)a s part of its 1952-53 Scenes set. While the normal stamp is quite common, a light olive green variety (Scott #24a), issued in 1958, is not, as only 1,300 of the variety were issued. Scott '10 prices the unused variety at $ 60.00.

The variety has been neglected, and has a strong dual market, appealing to both American and Japanese collectors.


Sunday, January 3, 2010

Stamp Investment Tips: Newfoundland 1910 1c Guy Issue, "NFW" variety (Scott 87 var.)

A little over 2 months ago, I recommended purchase of Newfoundland's 1910 Guy Issue (Scott #87-97, 98-103). Focusing a little more closely on this issue, I am now tipping the stamp that is perhaps its most undervalued variety, the 1c "NFW" for "NEW" variety (formerly Scott 87d- the upper left stamp in the block pictured). Scott, in its infinite wisdom, elected to deprive this stamp of its catalog number, although it is still noted and priced in Scott's Classic Specialized Catalog. Unitrade, the Canadian specialized catalog, still lists the stamp.



50,000 of the normal 1c stamp (Scott #87) were printed in sheets of 100, of which one stamp per sheet had the "NFW" variety. In other words, only 500 "NFW" varieties were originally issued, back in 1910. Nice LH and even NH examples can sometimes be found for $50 to $150, and the stamp is even occasionally available in blocks of 4 with the normal 1c stamps. I feel that this stamp is grossly undervalued, partly because of Scott's treatment of it, a temporary case of the "tail wagging the dog." Stamps of Newfoundland and the other former British colonies of British North America are very popular among both Canada and British Commonwealth collectors.


With a population of about 31 million, Canada is one of the world's wealthiest countries, and is one of the world's top ten trading nations. GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the past five years, which takes into account the 0% growth of 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Canada's population is expected to age significantly over the next decades. Canadians over 60 are projected to increase from 16.7% of the population in 2000 to 27.9% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2050. Consequently, in the future, many more Canadians will be spending time working on their stamp collections on cold winter days.



Stamp Investment Tips: Finland 1930 Zeppelin Overprint (Scott # C1)


In 1930, Finland overprinted 50,000 of its 10m Lake Saima
stamps "Zeppelin 1930", thereby creating its first airmail, intended to be used on the Graf Zeppelin return flight from Finland to Germany (Scott #C1). 500 stamps were errantly overprinted "Zeppelin 1830" instead of "1930" (Scott #C1a), of which probably about 200-300 were sold and the rest destroyed. Scott '10 values #C1 unused at $ 140.00 ($225.00 for NH)and C1a at $2,500 .

I feel that both stamps are good investments, but that the overprint error is the better of the two. Zeppelin stamps and covers are extremely popular worldwide, and the "1830" overprint error is one of the gems of both Finnish and Zeppelin philately. It costs a little more than a U.S. 1930 Zeppelin set (Scott #C13-15), yet is about 200 times rarer, and worth its weight in Finnish fairy dust.


Finland, a nation of 5.3 million people, has a highly industrialized free-market economy focused largely on manufacturing. GDP growth has averaged about 3.6% annually over the last 5 years, although it declined recently due to the global financial crisis, and is now recovering. Finland's stamp collecting population is comparable to other Scandinavian countries, and will probably grow significantly as the nation ages over the next decades.

Counterfeit overprints exist of both the normal and error stamps, so authentication is recommended, especially for the error.




Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Mulling Over Moldova


There's an old saying in real estate investing which I believe applies to the many of the stamps of Moldova: "Buy the worst house in the best neighborhood."

Flipping through the Moldova section of a Michel Osteuropa 2009/2010 Catalog (Band 7), I've noted that the country was established in 1991, and that the sets and souvenir sheets it has produced since then have been issued in low to moderate quantities- mostly 100,000 or fewer, with many under 30,000. Furthermore, many of Moldova's issues are attractive topicals, with international appeal.

On the other hand, Moldova is the poorest country in Europe, and about a quarter of its population of 3 1/2 million live on less than $2 per day. The country has no mineral deposits but enjoys a favorable climate and good farmland, and depends heavily on agriculture (mainly fruits, vegetables, wine, and tobacco). Currently, Moldova imports all of its supplies of oil, coal, and natural gas, mostly from Russia, and consequently is extremely vulnerable to increases in energy prices. Annual GDP growth has been strong recently, averaging about 5.5% over the last five years.


My view is that the Moldovan economy will probably gradually improve, and that even if it doesn't, it doesn't have much further to fall. Development of domestic alternative forms of energy could improve its situation considerably. While I do not believe that a significant stamp collecting base will develop within the country in the near future, its scarcest popular topical sets and souvenir sheets should be considered for speculation. I've listed a few of them, along with quantities issued, and Scott '10 Catalog Values, below:

1995 Mushrooms (Scott #153-57; 22,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 16.65)

1995 Relics (Scott #161-63; 25,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 9.40)

1995 Films (Scott #187-89; 20,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 9.15 )

1996 Mushrooms (Scott #190-94; 20,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 9.00)

1996 Summer Olympics s/s (Scott #199a; 10,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 3.50)

1996 Monasteries (Scott #200-04; 17,000; Scott '10 CV = $ 10.40)

1997 Composers (Scott #232-35; 19,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 7.00)

1997 UNESCO World Heritage Sites (Scott #250-55; 18,500; Scott '10 CV = $ 6.35)



Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Stamp Investment Tips: Canada 1952 $1 Fisheries Official (Scott #O27)


In 1951, Canada issued one of its most attractive stamps, honoring its Fishing Industry (Scott #302). In 1952, 40,000 of the Fisheries stamps were overprinted "G" for government use (Scott #O27). Scott '10 prices the unused Official stamp at $ 100.00.

In my opinion, the $1 Fisheries Official is undervalued and has been ignored because it is a back-of-book issue. Interest in stamp collecting in Canada is much stronger than it is in the U.S., and I favor better B.N.A. stamps for investment, especially if they have modest printings and have been unjustifiably overlooked thusfar.

With a population of about 31 million, Canada is one of the world's wealthiest countries, and is one of the world's top ten trading nations. GDP growth has averaged 2.2% over the past five years, which takes into account the 0% growth of 2009 due to the global financial crisis. Canada's population is expected to age significantly over the next decades, thereby bolstering its population of serious collectors. Canadians over 60 are projected to increase from 16.7% of the population in 2000 to 27.9% in 2025, and 30.5% in 2050. Consequently, in the future, many more Canadians will be spending time working on their stamp collections on cold winter days.


Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Lagos 1904 Edward VII Issue (Scott #40-49)

In 1904, Lagos, a British Protectorate which later became part of Nigeria, issued a set of definitives picturing Edward VII (Scott #40-49). Only 720 sets were issued, based on the printing quantity of the 10sh high value (Scott #49), and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 694.10 . The 2sh6p and 5sh values (Scott #47 and 48) are also scarce, with printing quantities of 1,440 and 1,680 respectively.


Stamps of Lagos have the potential for a strong dual market among collectors of British Commonwealth and Nigeria.

A nation of over 154 million people, Nigeria is an an emerging market country, and is rapidly approaching middle income status, with its abundant supply of resources, well-developed financial, legal, communications, transport sectors and stock exchange (the Nigerian Stock Exchange), which is the second largest in Africa. It is the eighth largest exporter of petroleum in the world. GDP growth has average almost 6% over the last 5 years. However, the country also has major problems, including corruption, human rights abuses, grossly unequal distribution of income, and internal religious and tribal conflicts.

Based purely on the growth of demand from British Commonwealth collectors, the Lagos 1904 Edward VII set and its high values represent a conservative investment with little downside risk. Should Nigeria develop even a modest base of stamp collectors, the set will soar.



Monday, November 16, 2009

General Commentary: Getting in on the Ground Floor




There is a saying on Wall Street that a good time to buy stocks is when there is "blood in the streets." The old adage also applies to philatelic investing, sometimes quite literally, when it comes to stamps of "basket case" countries which have "bottomed out" due to war or economic stagnation, and for which the situation can't get much worse. Of course, there is the possibility that such a country's situation may not improve much in the long-term, but remain bad indefinitely. Fortunately, there are ways of investing in stamps of stricken nations which minimize the consequences of this risk.

There have been many notable examples of countries which have risen from misery, and for which the stamps have followed suit. The three Axis powers of World War II - Germany, Japan, and Italy- were impoverished for years following their defeat, and stamps of those countries purchased during the lean years of recovery and reconstruction have risen considerably. Many of the countries of the Far East and South Asia were considered Third or Fourth World nations only a few decades ago, yet based on their recent growth, the time may come when Chinese or Indian parents tell their children to finish the food on their plates and pity the poor, starving Americans. Latin America, once a region dominated by corrupt, oligarchical dictatorships and American multi-nationals, has experienced a mega-trend of democratization and economic reforms which has created greater prosperity and a nascent middle-class where none existed before.


Of course, it is always possible that a stricken country will remain so for decades. When investing in stamps of such a country, the risk of loss may be minimized by investing in stamps which are sought by collectors outside of the country itself - extremely scarce to rare key items which are of interest to specialists, and scarce popular topical issues which appeal to collectors worldwide. Demand for such stamps will not be significantly affected should the country remain in the doghouse or even decline further, but will increase rapidly if it breaks out.







Sunday, November 15, 2009

Stamp Investment Tips: Great Britain 1929 1 Pound Postal Union Congress (Scott #209)


In 1929, Great Britain issued the 1 Pound Postal Union Congress stamp picturing St. George Slaying the Dragon (Scott #209). Many collectors believe this to be Great Britain's most beautiful stamp. 61,000 were issued, and Scott '10 prices it unused at $ 850.00 ($1,400 for NH) . Many were probably used on packages and then discarded.

This is one of two or three stamps that could serve as a representative investment for all of the stamps of Great Britain. I view it as a blue-chip which should do well over the long haul, but probably does not have the same potential for explosive value increases as the more speculative items of emerging market nations.

Stamps of Great Britain are popular worldwide, especially in Commonwealth nations and in the U.S.. With about 61 million people and an advanced, diverse economy, Great Britain had annual GDP growth of around 2-3% until the the nation participated in the train-wreck of the global financial crisis, from which it is recovering. As with much of Western Europe, Great Britain's population is projected to age significantly over the next decades. The proportion of British citizens over 60 is projected to rise from 20.6% in 2000 to 29.4% in 2025, and 34% in 2050, according to a 2007 UN report. This will add to the ranks of stamp collectors seeking better material from Great Britain and its former colonies.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Stamp Investment Tips: Belgian Congo 1910-15 Scenes (Scott #45-59)


From 1910-1915, the Belgian Congo issued a set picturing various scenes of the Colony (Scott #45-59). 85,000 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices it unused at $ . Additionally, some of the values of the set were surcharged in 1918, creating the Colony's first semi-postal set (Scott #B1-9). Only 7,500 of the semi-postal set were issued, and Scott '10 prices it unused at $ 181.59 ($500 for NH) .

I recommend purchase of both of these sets, because they have a potential dual market among collectors of Belgian Colonies and the Congo.

With about 66 million people, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire), is endowed with a vast potential wealth of resources, but has been plagued by wars, corruption, mismanagement, and poverty. Annual GDP growth has been between 6% and 7% over the last 3 years, but little of the new wealth has been distributed amongst the majority of the population, which is extremely poor.


I favor both sets based upon the probable growth in demand for stamps of Belgium and Colonies. Given the economic situation in the D.R.C., I do not feel that a significant stamp market will develop there for at least a decade. If and when the situation in that country substantially improves, however, the increases in value for its better stamps could be quite dramatic.





Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Stamp Investment Tip: Israel 1949 TABUL Souvenir Sheet (Scott #16)

In 1949, Israel held its first national stamp exhibition, TABUL, and issued a souvenir sheet picturing one of its first stamps, which featured an ancient Judean coin (Scott #16). About 95,000 were sold, and Scott '10 prices the unused souvenir sheet at $ 90.00. Aside from the sheet's scarcity, it represents an interesting investment as both a "stamps on stamps" and a "coins on stamps" topical, and because of its association with Jewish history.

Israel is considered one of the most advanced countries in the world in terms of economic development. As a technology powerhouse which leads the world in the number of scientists and engineers per capita, it also has the second largest number of start-up companies after the U.S.. Israel's main burden is having to spend much of its GNP on defending itself from some of its more bellicose neighbors. Should peace break out, trade will grow exponentially, and Israel could serve as a model for economic development in the Mid-East and much of the Third World. In that event, the better stamps of Israel and the Palestine Mandate will increase dramatically.


Israeli stamps are popular in Israel and among Jewish collectors around the world. Those interested in learning more about Israeli stamps should consider purchasing a Bale Catalogue, which classifies and values many items not listed in Scott, including forerunners, errors, varieties, machine-vended stamps, revenues, postal stationery, and booklets.



Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Stamp Investment Tips: Tunisia 1918 P.O.W. Semi-postal Issue (Scott #B12-18)

Tunisia was a French protectorate until 1956. In 1918, it surcharged its regular Scenes set of 1906, issuing a semi-postal set funding relief of prisoners of war in Germany (Scott #B12-19). Only 7,285 sets were issued, and Scott '10 prices the unused set at $ 326.85 .


This scarce set has a potential dual market among collectors of both French Colonies and Tunisia.

Tunisia has a diverse economy, and its major industries include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum products and tourism. This republic of 10.3 million people is considered a moderate Islamic nation, and was ranked the most competitive economy in Africa and the 40th in the world by the World Economic Forum. Annual GDP growth has averaged about 5% over the last 5 years. The European Union is Tunisia's main trading partner, and the country has also attracted major investments from several Persian Gulf countries.



I view the 1918 P.O.W. Semi-postal set as an attractive investment based solely on interest from French Colonies collectors. Of course, should a significant stamp market develop among Tunisians, the set will be given an added boost.


Friday, November 6, 2009

Stamp Investment Tips: Ryukyus "Heavenly Maiden" Airmails




The Ryukyus Islands were occupied by U.S. forces in 1945, and reverted to Japan in 1972. During the period of occupation, the U.S. issued stamps for use in the Ryukyus, which now are sought by U.S. and Japanese collectors. Three of the airmail sets, picturing a heavenly maiden playing a flute, are scarce, and I've listed their printing quantities and Scott '10 Catalog Values below:


C4-8 1951-54 Heavenly Maiden (75,000; $ 30.00)
C9-13 1957 Heavenly Maiden (48,800; $ 85.00)
C14-18 1959 Heavenly Maiden, Surcharged (80,000; $ 50.00)



Many of these stamps were used as postage by Americans stationed on the islands, for sending letters and packages back to the States. The sets have a strong dual market, appealing to both American and Japanese collectors, and I recommend their accumulation.